N. Zealand’s record smoking decline linked to smoke-free products

MANILA, Philippines — New Zealand’s smoking rates among adults have fallen at a record pace, according to a trio of public health experts, with a new study examining the role of tobacco harm reduction in the decline.

In a June study published by “The Lancet Regional Health,” a leading peer-reviewed medical journal, the team observed that smoking prevalence had declined sharply among adults starting in 2018.

The authors noted that the annual rate of decline jumped from 3.5 percent before 2018, to 17.9 percent between 2018 and 2023 — a fivefold acceleration in the annual rate of decline.

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“Joinpoint regression analysis confirms this period as a statistically significant acceleration in decline compared with earlier trends,” according to the study, titled “New Zealand’s accelerating smoking decline: lessons for tobacco harm reduction,” authored by Robert Beaglehole and Ruth Bonita, professors emeritus at the University of Auckland, along with Ben Youdan, an independent health advisor.

The researchers linked the shift to a series of developments around 2019, among them the rise in vaping, as well as the Ministry of Health recognizing vapes as a substantially less harmful alternative to smoking and supporting their use as a means to quit cigarettes.

Led by Beaglehole, a former director at the World Health Organization (WHO), the team noted that the rise in vaping coincided with the accelerated smoking decline.

The authors also distinguished between vaping and combustible cigarettes, noting that nicotine itself is not the cause of illnesses associated with smoking. Instead, they argued that public health policies should prioritize reducing exposure to combustible tobacco, which carries the primary burden of tobacco-related harm.

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The study reviewed New Zealand’s tobacco control policies over the past two decades.

In 2004, New Zealand ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and rolled out measures including smoke-free public spaces, graphic health warnings, and higher tobacco taxes. Though the authors found that smoking prevalence ​declined during this period, it was at a slower annual rate than after 2018.

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The authors noted that had earlier trends persisted, New Zealand would have missed its “Smokefree 2025” aspiration by several decades.

READ: Tobacco use in PH: Health, income going up in smoke

Today, New Zealand’s remaining smoking population has plateaued to under seven percent and has become concentrated among older adults with long, entrenched smoking histories, particularly the indigenous Maori.

The study noted that smoking prevalence among the Maori population also halved over six years.

The findings suggest that conventional tobacco control measures can be complemented by a harm reduction strategy to further decrease smoking rates.

“Maintaining a clear focus on reducing harm from combustible tobacco will be critical to sustaining progress as smoking prevalence declines,” the authors said.

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“Further progress will require compassionate and targeted equity-focused interventions and a coherent regulatory framework that covers all nicotine products in proportion to the risks they incur,” they added. /atm