Wallabies need cool heads and a hard edge against France to stop the gallant losses

Hard luck. Hard lessons. Call it what you want, but Australia’s 31-33 loss to Ireland last weekend has to harden the Wallabies’ resolve to stop losing gallantly and find a ruthless edge. With one win from their past nine Tests and the threat of home World Cup humiliation looming in 14 months, honourable defeat and positive intent no longer cut it. They must beat France this Saturday in Brisbane or they risk losing everything.

Against the reigning Six Nations champions it won’t be easy. Dave Rennie’s All Blacks only narrowly overpowered a second-string France side 34-32 in Christchurch in the opening round of the Nations Championship. And although Les Bleus will be without their record-breaking winger Damian Penaud for this Test, Fabien Galthié’s world No 4 squad are welcoming back nine game-fit stars from the Top 14 final last week.

Australia’s chances have taken a massive blow with playmaker Carter Gordon – one of Australia’s stars from the Ireland shootout – ruled out with a calf strain. The flashy 25-year-old is also set to miss next week’s Test against Italy in Perth. With backup Ben Donaldson also injured, coach Joe Schmidt has made one of the boldest calls of his career in his penultimate Test: blooding debutant Declan Meredith.

At 27, Meredith is a late bloomer but had a fine season for ACT Brumbies, leading them to upset wins over the Crusaders and Chiefs with his soft hands and big boot. Against the brilliant Bordeaux Bègles duo Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert, Meredith faces a baptism of fire but he has plenty of rugby nous and will have club mates Ryan Lonergan and Len Ikitau at either shoulder to spark the Wallabies attack.

Also scratched is No 8 Tom Hooper with a shoulder injury, a blow softened by the news the big lock is joining the Queensland Reds in July 2028 and with Nick Champion de Crespigny named as reserve. The only other change is Tom Wright returning at fullback, shuffling Jock Campbell to the bench and allowing powerful Reds backline utility Filipo Daugunu to round out the matchday 23.

For the Wallabies, the challenge is enormous. France are riding a three-match winning streak against Australia while Schmidt’s world No 8 side are staring down the barrel of six straight Test defeats for the first time since 2015-16. (In 2025, for the first time in 127 years, they lost 10 Tests in one season). The silver lining? The last time Australia beat France it was at Suncorp Stadium in 2021, and they did it twice.

History won’t count for much on Saturday. Self-belief and a cut-throat attitude will. Australia lost the Test to Ireland despite winning virtually every metric in the game: they carried further (455 metres to 379) and more often (141 to 126), they beat more defenders (31 to 18) and made more clean breaks (10 to four), they missed fewer tackles (18 to 31) and won more turnovers. They even stole four Irish lineouts.

None of these “wins” – or even the five terrific tries they scored – earned them victory. The statistics that defeated the Wallabies were around composure and discipline. They conceded 12 penalties, 11 of them in their own half and the last a yellow card against debutant Lachie Shaw. And they lost their nerve off the kicking tee, Gordon missing two conversions and Donaldson two penalties. Ten points squandered.

In the last five years, the Wallabies have lost eight Tests by three points or fewer, a stark difference to their rivals Ireland (twice), France (three) and New Zealand (once). Sure, the men in gold have won three Tests by the same slim margin in that time but it still pales before rivals like New Zealand (four), South Africa (five) and France (six). It speaks of a side lacking a killer instinct and a clutch kicker with ice in their veins.

Just as Michael Hooper did as captain before him, current Wallabies leader Harry Wilson has tried to offset this weakness in the Australian game with crazy-brave decision-making at the death. Last year Wilson famously spurned draws with Argentina and Fiji and backed his men to score last-gasp tries to win. Both times it came off. Against Ireland he twice opted for kicks in the final 10 minutes and paid dearly for it.

Every team needs a sharp-shooter. France has Thomas Ramos, the country’s all-time points scorer. Who will Australia call on? Most likely is Lonergan, who ended the Super season with 90% kick success. Unfortunately, he and Gordon (86% kick success) were both off the field injured when Ireland needed burying. But that’s putting the cart before the horse. Maybe Australia simply need to score more five-pointers.

That wasn’t a problem against Ireland, and their five tries at least won Australia two consolation points on the Nations Championship ladder. Both teams will likely start in overdrive again, looking for an early knockout. Wearing their Indigenous jerseys for Naidoc week, much depends on Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii breaking the thin blue line to feed the speed racers of Dylan Pietsch, Max Jorgensen and Wright on the edges.

Fast feet, cool heads and a hard edge. That’s the Wallabies’ path to victory.