Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Friday, July 10, 2026

Key Facts

June IPCA lands 12:00 BRT, the single event that decides today’s mood, consensus sees the headline near 0.31% month-on-month with the annual rate creeping to 4.8% from 4.72%, and any downside surprise hardens the case for an August Selic cut.

The August wager is live, with traders now leaning toward another quarter-point reduction from the current 14.25% after two straight months of cooling mid-month inflation, reversing the data-dependent caution Copom left in place.

USD/BRL sits at 5.1161, having firmed 0.67% and now 8.5% below its 52-week high, a soft print would extend the real’s carry-trade appeal, while a hot number risks a snap back toward 5.20.

The Ibovespa closed at 172,742, up one session in a row but still 13.0% below its 52-week high of 198,657, leaving room to run if the data cooperate.

Retail and rate-sensitives are the tell, after Magazine Luiza jumped 7.8% on R$133m turnover, the domestic easing trade is where the IPCA reaction will show first at the open.

Today’s Focus

Everything today hangs on one number — the full June IPCA at 12:00 BRT, the release that turns the abstract easing debate into a hard August wager.

Two soft mid-month readings have already nudged traders toward pricing a fourth quarter-point Selic cut, and a benign composition today would cement it. The real, at 5.1161 per dollar, is the cleanest expression of that bet.

The domestic-rate names carry the signal. Magazine Luiza’s 7.8% surge and Raia Drogasil’s 4.7% gain on heavy turnover show where the easing trade is concentrating — watch them at the open for confirmation or a fade.

Against that, twelve-month inflation near 4.8% still sits above the 4.5% ceiling, so the bull case rests on momentum, not on prices already being tame.

What matters today. Whether the June IPCA composition is soft enough to lock in an August cut — that decides the real, the curve and the rate-sensitive board today.

Today’s Economic Events

09:00 BRT

Brazil — Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (Jun, MOM): previous 0.6

09:00 BRT

Mexico — Industrial Production (May, MOM): consensus -0.6, previous 2.1

09:00 BRT

Brazil — Inflation Rate (Jun, MOM): consensus 0.31, previous 0.58

09:00 BRT

Mexico — Industrial Production (May, YOY): consensus -0.1, previous 2.3

09:00 BRT

Brazil — Inflation Rate (Jun, YOY): consensus 4.8, previous 4.72

03:45 BRT

France — CPI n.s.a (Jun, YOY): previous 1.8

03:45 BRT

France — CPI n.s.a (Jun, MOM): previous -0.2

09:30 BRT

Canada — Unemployment Rate (Jun): consensus 6.6, previous 6.6

09:30 BRT

Canada — Average Hourly Wages (Jun, YOY): consensus 3.1, previous 3.2

09:30 BRT

Canada — Part Time Employment Chg (Jun): consensus 25, previous -66.2

01 The setup in one read

Brazil trades into a data-day where the whole tape waits on one release — the June IPCA at midday, the print that converts the easing story into an August Selic bet.

The backdrop is constructive: the real has firmed to 5.1161 and the Ibovespa carries momentum into the session, closing the prior day at 172,742.

But this is a wait-then-react session, not a trend-follow one — positioning ahead of noon will be cautious, and the real move comes on the number.

For the foreign holder, the stakes sit in the carry: Brazil still offers some of the highest real yields of any large economy, and a slow, well-signalled easing keeps that return attractive while lifting equity valuations.

Assessment — Data-day setup tilts constructive, not clear MEDIUM

The pieces line up for a firm open — a firming real, a rising index and an easing narrative that a soft print would confirm. But the reaction is binary around noon, and a hot headline or ugly services core would flip the mood fast; watch the 12:00 BRT IPCA composition above all.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

Instrument

Last close

Indicated

Watch today

Ibovespa

172,742

+ firm

172,742 pivot; 52-week high 198,657 the ceiling, IPCA the trigger

USD/BRL

5.1161

− real firmer

5.10 support, 5.20 on a hot print

S&P 500

7,544

+ steady

Wall Street sets the risk backdrop; 52-week high 7,610 near

Mexbol

66,107

—

Regional read-across; off 7.7% from its high

The index closed 13.0% below its 52-week high — context, not today’s story, but it frames the room to run if the data cooperate.

The real is the cleaner instrument: 5.1161 sits 8.5% below its 52-week high of 5.5901, and a soft IPCA extends that firming; a hot one risks a snap toward 5.20.

Wall Street’s proximity to record highs — the S&P at 7,544, within 0.9% of its peak — keeps the external backdrop supportive into the Brazilian open.

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Brazil Morning Call — Live Board

B3 · pre-open setup

Jul 10, 2026 · 02:59

Ibovespa · benchmark

172,742

+1.22%

+25.65% over 12 months

Market breadth · 33 names

82% advancing

27 ▲ advancing6 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.12

-0.63%

EUR / BRL

5.85

-0.63%

Selic rate

14.25%

·

Brent crude

76.63

+0.43%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Consumer Disc.

+3.17%

AZZA3, LREN3

Utilities

+2.75%

ENEV3

Consumer Staples

+2.52%

SLCE3, ABEV3

Financials

+2.42%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Mining

+1.65%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Industrials

+1.15%

WEGE3, RENT3

Other

+1.01%

BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD

Materials

+0.95%

SUZB3, KLABIN

Energy

-1.28%

PETR4, PRIO3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil

172,742

+1.22%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico

66,107

-0.75%

S&P IPSAChile

11,025

+0.72%

S&P MERVALArgentina

3,202,490

-0.67%

MSCI COLCAPColombia

2,292.75

-0.87%

BVL S&P PerúPeru

54,904.64

+2.35%

Full instrument board

InstrumentLastChangeYoYPrev.HighLowVolume

IBOV

172,742

+1.22%

+25.65%

170,654

—

—

—

USD/BRL

5.12

-0.63%

-8.30%

5.15

5.12

5.12

—

EUR/BRL

5.85

-0.63%

-10.52%

5.89

5.85

5.85

—

SELIC

14.25%

—

—

—

—

—

BRENT

76.63

+0.43%

+11.64%

76.30

76.84

75.91

1,636

WTI

72.38

+0.42%

+8.73%

72.08

72.56

71.22

11,821

IRON ORE

161.91

—

+67.33%

161.91

161.91

1

GOLD

4,123

-0.20%

+24.27%

4,131

4,145

4,118

16,669

SILVER

60.50

+0.19%

+63.33%

60.38

61.20

60.15

4,599

LITHIUM

72.82

+0.97%

+80.87%

72.12

73.17

72.30

196,310

SOY

1,181

+0.13%

+16.67%

1,180

1,184

1,179

6,277

CORN

452.75

+5.84%

+11.17%

427.75

453.25

450.00

8,862

WHEAT

619.25

+1.31%

+12.54%

611.25

620.75

617.00

2,058

COFFEE

341.45

+5.30%

+17.78%

324.25

348.55

313.50

—

SUGAR

15.15

+0.26%

-6.83%

15.11

15.20

14.89

—

ORANGE JUICE

145.35

-8.15%

-48.08%

158.25

156.60

144.40

—

COTTON

80.32

+5.39%

+21.24%

76.21

79.67

78.28

20,381

BEEF

235.30

-0.98%

+7.33%

237.63

238.48

234.40

27,176

CATTLE

356.28

-1.60%

+10.89%

362.05

364.08

355.40

10,348

COCOA

6,366

+6.83%

-27.18%

5,959

6,478

5,961

—

PETR4

39.21

-1.11%

+21.32%

39.65

39.21

—

—

VALE3

73.15

+0.62%

+35.36%

72.70

73.15

—

—

SUZB3

41.03

+0.49%

-17.94%

40.83

41.29

40.56

4,832,500

KLABIN

17.40

+1.40%

-5.06%

17.16

17.40

—

—

SLCE3

13.79

+4.39%

-13.81%

13.21

13.79

—

—

ABEV3

15.72

+0.64%

+18.11%

15.62

15.72

—

—

ITUB4

42.59

+1.67%

+20.62%

41.89

42.75

41.94

18,642,200

BBDC4

18.00

+1.75%

+10.02%

17.69

18.05

17.72

20,000,300

BBAS3

20.00

+2.41%

-6.76%

19.53

20.00

—

—

B3SA3

14.79

+3.86%

+2.14%

14.24

14.80

14.36

22,095,100

WEGE3

45.74

+0.86%

+14.04%

45.35

45.74

—

—

PRIO3

55.61

-1.44%

+30.63%

56.42

55.61

—

—

RENT3

39.40

+1.44%

+5.55%

38.84

39.40

—

—

AZZA3

18.46

+3.13%

-50.11%

17.90

18.57

17.83

1,528,100

CSNA3

4.80

+2.78%

-39.47%

4.67

4.80

—

—

GGBR4

22.48

+1.54%

+33.89%

22.14

22.48

—

—

ENEV3

26.20

+2.75%

+95.52%

25.50

26.20

—

—

LREN3

14.15

+3.21%

-27.06%

13.71

14.15

13.69

8,540,100

Largest moves today

ORANGE JUICE

145.35

-8.15%

COCOA

6,366

+6.83%

CORN

452.75

+5.84%

COTTON

80.32

+5.39%

COFFEE

341.45

+5.30%

SLCE3

13.79

+4.39%

B3SA3

14.79

+3.86%

LREN3

14.15

+3.21%

The session read

The Ibovespa rose 1.22%, with breadth positive — 27 of 33 names higher. Consumer Disc. led, while Energy lagged.

03 On the B3 radar today — the June IPCA sets the August Selic wager

Item

When

Why it matters

Brazil IPCA inflation rate (June)

12:00 BRT

The day’s catalyst; consensus ~0.31% m/m, ~4.8% y/y — decides the August cut bet

Brazil IPCA index SA (June)

12:00 BRT

Seasonally-adjusted read; core composition is what Copom watches

Mexico Industrial Production

12:00 BRT

Regional read-across; est −0.6% / −0.1%, prior above 2%

CFTC BRL net positions

19:30 BRT

Post-close positioning gauge; prior +44.7k — shows the carry lean

US WASDE crop report

16:00 BRT

Moves ag names via grain and soy prices

The 12:00 BRT IPCA is the fulcrum — everything before it is positioning, everything after is reaction.

Composition matters more than the headline: stripping the volatile power line, a broad-based easing is what would let policymakers trust a downward trend into August.

The after-hours CFTC positioning data and WASDE crop report are secondary, feeding the currency and agribusiness narratives rather than driving the open.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The benchmark Selic sits at 14.25% after three straight quarter-point cuts — still among the highest real yields of any large economy.

The mid-month IPCA-15 for June rose 0.41%, below the 0.44% expected and a second consecutive slowdown, which is what tilted the market toward an August cut.

The catch is the level: twelve-month inflation near 4.8% still sits above the 4.5% ceiling, so the easing case rests on momentum rather than on prices already being at target.

Copom has been explicit that fiscal credibility and the path of public debt — not any single month of prices — will decide how far it cuts, a caveat sharpened by the election-year spending backdrop.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

The domestic-easing trade is the story, and retail is its clearest expression — Magazine Luiza jumped 7.8% on R$133m turnover, the standout name to watch for follow-through at the open.

Raia Drogasil, the drugstore chain, added 4.7% on a chunky R$211m of turnover — a rate-sensitive consumer name that tracks the same cut narrative.

Turnover concentrated in the heavyweights: Vale led at R$1,386m and Petrobras’s preferred shares saw R$1,306m — the liquidity anchors that set the index’s direction regardless of the IPCA reaction.

On the other side, Petrobras common shares slipped 1.4% and PRIO fell 1.4% — the oil complex lagging as crude and the commodity tape diverge from the domestic rate story.

06 The levels to watch at the open

For the Ibovespa, the prior close of 172,742 is the pivot — hold above it on a soft print and the path opens toward reclaiming ground lost to the 198,657 high.

For the real, 5.10 is the near support and 5.20 the line that a hot IPCA would test — the currency is the fastest-moving read on the August wager.

The rate-sensitive board — retail, homebuilders, drugstores — is where the IPCA reaction shows first; a benign core sends them higher while the oil complex may stay heavy.

The disciplined play is to wait for the noon number: this is a react-to-the-data session, and the real move is at 12:00 BRT, not at the bell.

07 What to watch

IPCA composition: Whether services and core ease broadly, not just the headline — that is what Copom trusts before an August cut.

The real at 5.10: A break of support extends the carry trade; a bounce toward 5.20 signals the hot-print scenario.

Retail follow-through: Magazine Luiza and Raia Drogasil confirming or fading the easing trade at the open.

Fiscal noise: Election-year spending headlines that could lift inflation expectations and cap how far Copom cuts.

Background: Mexico’s Prices Fell Again in June. Core Inflation Rose Again..

Background: Colombia Hiked Rates to 12%. Inflation Broke 6% a Week Later..

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the key event for B3 today?

The full June IPCA inflation release at 12:00 BRT — consensus sees the headline near 0.31% month-on-month and the annual rate around 4.8%, and it decides the odds of an August Selic cut.

Where is the Selic now and what’s the August bet?

The benchmark sits at 14.25% after three straight quarter-point cuts; traders now lean toward a fourth cut in August after two months of cooling mid-month inflation, though annual inflation near 4.8% remains above the 4.5% ceiling.

Where is USD/BRL indicated?

The real firmed to 5.1161, 8.5% below its 52-week high; a soft IPCA extends the firming toward 5.10 support, while a hot print risks a snap back toward 5.20.

Which names are in play?

Retail and rate-sensitive names lead the easing trade — Magazine Luiza surged 7.8% and Raia Drogasil rose 4.7% — while the oil complex lagged with Petrobras common down 1.4%.