Cook Political Report moving 4 of 5 gubernatorial races toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday shifted its ratings in five gubernatorial races, moving all but one race in favor of Democrats, as the left gains momentum in several key states ahead of November.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors’ editor for the report, wrote that Democrats are finding themselves uniquely competitive in several red-leaning states, benefiting from a “favorable national climate” and “unique Democratic recruits.”

The biggest changes came in Arizona and Ohio; the governor’s race in the Grand Canyon State moved from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” and in the Buckeye State — which is currently led by Gov. Mike DeWine (R) — the race shifted from “lean Republican” to a “toss up.”

In Arizona, the report cited Gov. Katie Hobbs’s (D) fundraising advantage over likely Republican nominee Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), as well as her relatively strong approval ratings as reasons for moving the race into the Democratic column.

Cook labeled Hobbs as “the most endangered Democratic incumbent” but noted that it was largely due to few incumbents running for reelection in competitive states. The governor has significantly outraised Biggs, already pouring in more than $6 million in ads and having more than six times his cash on hand in April.

The report described Biggs, who is backed by President Trump and expected to easily defeat his opponent, Rep. David Schweikert (Ariz.), in the GOP primary later this month, as a “potentially polarizing” candidate. His backing from hard-line conservatives and election denial may leave him vulnerable to picking up crucial votes from undecided or moderate voters, according to the analysis.

Trump won the state in 2024 and in 2016.

Ohio also became more competitive for Democrats, with Cook pointing to a series of polling showing Amy Acton (D), the state’s former health director, either narrowly leading or tied with biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (R), despite his multimillion-dollar advertising campaign largely attacking her regulations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some Ohio Republicans privately acknowledged to Cook that they “are not optimistic about Ramaswamy” and believe it will be a “very tight race.”

“This was the wrong guy to roll the dice with in this political environment,” one GOP source told the election handicapper.

The report also removed two Democratic-held seats from the competitive map entirely.

Maine shifted from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” with Cook arguing that Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree will enter the race with a commanding polling advantage over GOP opponent Bobby Charles.

New Mexico also moved from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” as former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland continues to dominate in fundraising over Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull (R).

The lone rating change benefiting Republicans came in Oregon, where the race moved from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”

Cook pointed to Gov. Tina Kotek’s (D) middling approval ratings and a competitive rematch against Christine Drazan (R), who narrowly lost the governor’s race to Kotek in 2022 by 3.4 percentage points.