Trump does an about-face on Ukraine and NATO, at least for now

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Not surprisingly, President Trump caused considerable anxiety at the NATO Summit when he railed against European allies for offering insufficient support to American operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

He reserved his toughest language for Spain, which has refused to accept NATO’s 5 percent defense spending targets and which has been outspokenly critical of the American-Israeli Operation Epic fury.

Trump ordered an immediate halt to all trade with Spain, although that may not be feasible given the possible need for Congressional approval for such a move. Finally, Trump reasserted his determination to take Greenland from Denmark and threatened to withdraw troops from Europe.

Given his forceful comments, it initially seemed likely that the friction he had generated would undermine the summit. Nevertheless, in the end, Trump sent a far more nuanced message to his NATO allies.

This time, Trump at least said nothing about leaving NATO or taking Greenland by force. Nor did he say anything about withdrawing troops from Europe. Indeed, two days before the summit began, Poland’s defense minister reported that the Trump administration had agreed to end its suspension of a planned rotation of an additional 4,000 troops to Poland. Trump did not deny the report. Moreover, last week he thanked Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda for Vilnius’s willingness to provide access and permanent basing to American troops. These were hardly indications of a move to withdraw troops from Europe.

Despite the apprehension of European policymakers prior to the opening of the summit, there appears to have been little friction in formulating the communique that NATO issued at its close. Though brief, the communique reiterated the alliance’s “ironclad commitment to our collective defense under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty and to the transatlantic bond” and stressed that “an attack on one is an attack on all.”

Moreover, it pronounced that “Iran must never have a nuclear weapon” and called on Iran “to fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” a point Trump repeatedly stressed in his meetings with the press.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte touted the fact that most of the European NATO members are on a path to reaching their commitment to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035. Trump seemed comfortable with the 5 percent objective, but rightly emphasized the need for speed. Indeed, should the Russo-Ukrainian war come to an end, Russia is far more likely than NATO’s European members to reconstitute its defense industrial base and warfighting capability; if any European country will be able to do so as quickly as Russia, it is likely to be Ukraine.

Trump seemed to have no issue with the communique’s language regarding Ukraine, which states that country “contributes to transatlantic security” and adds that the “Allies stand united in our unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

Indeed, unlike in last year’s heated Oval Office meeting, Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky seemed comfortable in each other’s presence at their joint press conference. And although Trump dominated the press conference, he did not monopolize it.

Trump marveled at Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting after nearly five years of war. He announced his support for Kyiv building Patriot air defense systems under license, arguing that Ukraine could field them far more rapidly than most experts predict. Trump voiced his support for Ukraine’s long-range strikes into Russian territory and sympathized with Zelensky’s refusal to accept Vladimir Putin’s offer of a summit meeting in Moscow.

Although Trump did not commit the U.S. to any more direct assistance to Ukraine, his positive remarks certainly should be a cause for concern in the Kremlin.

Trump also mused about lifting sanctions on Turkish participation in F-35 production as well as its acquisition of the aircraft. Congress had imposed the sanctions and blocked the sale unless Turkey relinquished the S-400 air defense systems it acquired from Russia. Although there has been speculation about the systems being transferred to a third country, Vladimir Putin would likely have to agree to any such arrangement. There is no reason to expect that his agreement would be forthcoming. The last thing Putin wants is a stronger NATO member to Russia’s south.

At his final news conference before departing Ankara, Trump spoke warmly of the “love” and “unification” that had marked the summit. He is not known for understatement, and there certainly was more than a small element of hyperbole in his description of alliance cohesion.

Not all the allies may have felt the same degree of love toward the U.S. But surely, they gave a rather large sigh of relief when Trump characterized their relationship with Washington in such glowing terms, even if he didn’t really mean everything he said and could change his mind in an instant.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.