Labor still sliding in Tasmania, despite facing a 12-year-old minority government

When Labor recorded its lowest electoral result in over a century last year some may have felt the party had hit rock bottom, at least in terms of polling.

But almost one year on, and with a new leader, polling from DemosAu suggests support for the party that once dominated government in Tasmania has slipped even further.

Just over one in five voters say they'd vote for Labor if a state election were to happen today.

To put that in context, the last time Labor's primary vote slipped to 21 per cent or below was in February 2014, when the party had been in government for almost 16 years and was about to lose an election, according to data from EMRS.

It's a rather poor showing from a party whose main opponent is a 12-year-old minority Liberal government that is planning to cut millions from the state service, has screwed up the delivery of a major infrastructure project and just had two of its ministers pushed to the backbench over integrity concerns.

But the recent slide in the polls is not an abnormality for Labor, in fact, its primary vote has been stuck under 25 percentage points ever since the last election.

So what is going wrong for the party that is supposed to be Tasmania's alternative government?

Well, polling aside, not a whole lot actually.

There was certainly a little drama around the leadership change from Dean Winter to Josh Willie. (Mr Winter, a member of the right faction, had more supporters in the party, but Mr Willie stood his ground knowing that the predominantly left rank and file would get him through.)

But the party has seemingly tried to put that behind them and rally around Mr Willie.

The former teacher has made education his big platform, promising five-day kindergarten and campaigning to save TAFE.

While there has been no Spirit of Tasmania debacle to bash the government with — a bungle that big only comes around every so often, one would hope — Labor has found itself going back to its core, with Question Time dedicated to education, health and cuts to the state service.

Under Mr Willie, with Ella Haddad acting as the main liaison, Labor has greatly improved its relationships with the Greens and members of the crossbench.

And that willingness to work more with the Greens and other members of the crossbench has reaped its rewards.

Yes, it was the Greens who spent countless hours doggedly chasing the issue of Madeleine Ogilvie's legal case and fees, but they would've struggled to get the final result without Labor.

And Labor may have muddied the waters a little by trying to attach it to Jane Howlett so soon after, but it got the win in the end, with Ms Howlett too moving to the backbench.

In a big moment for political nerds, Labor also held its first state conference in seven years, giving rank-and-file members a chance to mingle with party members.

Cutting through to the public

But while things are looking up within the political bubble, it seems that, judging by the polling, all is not well in the electorate.

Despite the government's very public, very recent dramas, including a censure motion, Labor can't seem to convince Tasmanians that they'd do a better job.

Naturally, questions turn to who is leading the party.

It's worth noting Mr Willie is its third leader in as many years. It was less than two and a half years ago that Rebecca White stepped down.

While Mr Winter's term in the top job was short lived. Losing an election that he helped trigger, Mr Winter was kicked to the kerb soon after.

Almost a year in, opinions seem mixed on Mr Willie's performance.

There are those who feel, both on the left and right, that he is not cutting through with the public, that his performance has been less than impressive, and the polls are a reflection of that.

Some on the left are frustrated that he hasn't differentiated himself enough from the right faction's Mr Winter, sticking with policies like opposing the ban on greyhound racing.

The new generation coming through believe a left-leaning Labor leader should be more obviously left. Particularly when you've got the more moderate Jeremy Rockliff leading the Liberals.

While some on the right remain frustrated that Mr Winter was not given a chance to redeem himself, and harbour hopes that he could make a return.

But others, including some of the pollies themselves, are happy with the course he is charting and believe he just needs more time.

If you were to grade Mr Willie, he'd probably get about a B- at best, more likely a C+.

Maybe not enough to get suspended, but nor is he going to win school captain.

Some look to Haddad

There is a view amongst some in political circles that Mr Willie is simply a seat warmer. Destined only to be Labor leader, not Labor premier.

But there is one name that crops up regularly as the next Labor leader and that's fellow Clark MP Ella Haddad.

Ms Haddad has led the charge on the integrity issues, prosecuting them articulately in and outside of parliament.

She is seen as an impressive performer and is well liked across the political spectrum, being given the job of liaising with the crossbench and Liberals.

In fact there are those in the Liberals who believe they will only be challenged "when", not if, Ms Haddad takes over.

This stems not only from the fact she's viewed as more formidable but also the belief Ms Haddad would do a deal with the Greens for government and takeover without an election.

It's worth noting Ms Haddad did in fact put her hand up to be the left faction's nominated leader, but they went with Mr Willie.

This of course is all just backroom talk. The reality is that no-one appears to be looking at taking on Mr Willie anytime soon — and it would certainly be jumping the gun after only a year.

Polls not rosy for Liberals either

Basing a change in leader on polling alone would be a mistake because Labor is not the only one taking a hit.

The Liberals only polled 28 per cent in the last DemosAU poll, meaning the combined major party vote has slumped to less than 50 per cent.

At last year's election, they pulled about 40 per cent of the vote themselves.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff is still proving popular, but it's not rubbing off on his party.

Perhaps the Liberals are finally facing some backlash for the $7 billion of debt the state finds itself in, the 1,800 job cuts they're planning and the wider issue of rising rents, homelessness and cost of living.

While it might be a favourite pastime, particularly of Mr Rockliff's, to reference the cuts to the public service that occurred under the last state Labor government, that excuse wore thin back when cloth masks were in fashion.

It's time to stop blaming the other sibling. The state Tasmania is in is squarely on the people that have been in charge for well over a decade. Yep, the Liberal government.

It's a wonder people are lining up to take on the job of fixing the finances.

Although apparently One Nation is keen to take on the job. They're on the way to becoming a registered party in the state.

It seems unclear how they would tackle the state's mounting debt given their few federal policies seem to mostly add to debt while keeping out the migrant workers we desperately need.

At 21 per cent of the vote in this latest poll, One Nation is neck and neck with Labor.

But it's very easy to throw One Nation a vote when you don't know who they're running. Will they be star candidates or no-names?

Look at how the independent vote goes in polls when it doesn't reference candidates compared to the vote at election time.

Speaking of elections, Tasmania has almost gone one year without one, and it looks like the state might actually make four years, or close to, for the first time since 2018.

That puts the next election sometime around 2029.

Perhaps the major parties might have worked out what they're doing so wrong as to drive people to One Nation by then, or maybe they'll continue on as is, winning fewer hearts and minds by the day.

The good news for Labor is that with a few more years to work it out, they can worry less about polling for now and more about reminding Tasmanians that if they're mad at the current government, there's actually a viable alternative one.