Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — July 11, 2026

Key Facts

Merval rallies 2.43%, in a session run under a non-working public holiday, with trades settling only on Monday.

Country risk sinks to 402 basis points, its lowest reading since 2018, as sovereign bonds extended gains on the government’s financing plan.

Grupo Galicia leads bank ADRs 9% higher in New York, while its BYMA-listed shares were the domestic scan’s most-traded name, up 5.8% on roughly $11m of turnover.

The peso sits within 0.3% of its 52-week weak extreme, at 1,487 per dollar, even as country risk collapses toward an eight-year low.

YPF shares slip 1.8% on the scan, the session’s biggest domestic decliner even as Banco Macro and Central Puerto ADRs rallied 5.8% and 6% in New York.

Today’s Focus

Argentina’s stock market pushed higher on July 10th even though the country was technically on a non-working holiday, with the S&P Merval up 2.43% on thin volumes that will only settle on Monday.

The real story sat in the bond market: country risk, JPMorgan’s gauge of what investors demand to hold Argentine sovereign debt over Treasuries, fell to 402 basis points — its lowest since 2018 — on continued momentum from the government’s 2026-27 financing programme.

Bank ADRs in New York led the charge, with Grupo Galicia up 9%, BBVA Argentina up 8.9%, and Banco Macro and Central Puerto both up around 6%, while locally YPF and Pampa Energía lagged behind the rally.

The peso, however, refused to join the party — it closed within 0.3% of its 52-week weakest print, a split between the bond-driven optimism and the currency that traders will be watching into next week.

What matters today. Country risk’s grind toward 400 basis points is validating the Milei reform trade in bonds and bank stocks, but the peso’s proximity to its 52-week weak extreme shows the FX market isn’t fully convinced yet.

01 The session in one read

Argentina’s bourse produced one of its livelier sessions of the month on July 10th, even though the exchange was technically operating on a non-working public holiday declared for tourism purposes rather than a full closure. Bank stocks shone in Wall Street and, in a session without settlement because of the non-working day but a meaningful one nonetheless, also on the Buenos Aires exchange.

The gains carried through to the S&P Merval index, which improved 2.43% in a session with thin trading volume that will in any case settle on Monday, given the bridge holiday. The move came alongside a fresh leg down in country risk, as bond repayments and this week’s presentation of the government’s financing programme kept feeding into dollar bonds, enabling a new step lower in country risk, to 402 points.

Grupo Galicia’s New York-listed ADR led bank stocks with a 9% advance, BBVA Argentina followed at 8.9%, and Banco Macro and Grupo Supervielle both improved 5.8%, in a rally that also swept up Central Puerto and TGS at around 6%. Locally, the most-traded BYMA ticker on the session was Grupo Financiera Galicia’s ordinary shares, up 5.8% on roughly $11 million of turnover — the single busiest domestic name of the day.

YPF’s local stock (YPFD) was the scan’s biggest domestic laggard, down 1.8% on about $3 million of turnover, with Pampa Energía also softer, down 0.5% — a reminder that the rally was concentrated in financials and utilities rather than broad-based.

Assessment — Bond Rally Outruns a Reluctant Peso MEDIUM

The evidence points to a market where fixed income and bank equities are pricing a genuine improvement in Argentina’s credit story — country risk at an eight-year low, bonds firm enough to fund a two-year financing plan, and ADRs from Galicia to Central Puerto rallying in sympathy — yet the peso’s stubborn position near its 52-week high shows currency traders remain more cautious than bond and equity desks; confidence is tempered because the session ran on a non-working holiday with thin, unsettled volumes, so watch whether Monday’s cleared trades and a fresh reading on official FX flows confirm or unwind Friday’s moves.

02 The day’s numbers

Measure

Level

Change

Read

Merval (S&P Merval, ARS)

—

+2.43%

Best session in weeks on thin holiday volume; trades settle Monday

Country risk (EMBI+, JPMorgan)

402 bps

−0.25%

Lowest since 2018, grinding toward the 400-point psychological floor

Argentine equities (ARGT proxy, USD)

95.07

+3.08%

52-week range 66.80–102.57; 7.3% off the 52-week high

USD/ARS (peso)

1,487

−0.03%

Just 0.3% off the 52-week high of 1,492 — the currency’s weakest zone

The peso is the session’s odd one out: it barely moved on the scan even as country risk collapsed, and it sits just 0.3% shy of its 52-week high — meaning the weakest print of the year for the currency. Local banks were shut for the holiday, and there was no activity in the FX market, with the official dollar remaining at $1,510 in the parallel retail read, underscoring how thin genuine price discovery was on the day.

For foreign desks without direct access to peso-denominated shares, the ARGT proxy — the New York-listed ETF that tracks Argentine equities including several Merval constituents — offers a dollar-based read, and it firmed 3.08% to 95.07, though it remains 7.3% below its 52-week high of 102.57. That gap between a buoyant bond and bank-ADR complex and a still-recovering broad equity proxy is worth watching into next week.

Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

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Argentina — Live Market Board

BYMA · Buenos Aires

Jul 11, 2026 · 02:49

S&P MERVAL · benchmark

3,280,224

+2.43%

L 3,193,075day rangeH 3,285,584

+58.56% over 12 months

Market breadth · 14 names

79% advancing

11 ▲ advancing3 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / ARS

1,487

-0.03%

Brent crude

76.00

-0.39%

Soybeans

1,190

+0.83%

Sector heatmap · average move today

Telecom

+3.03%

TELECOM ARG

Financials

+2.80%

GGAL, COME, BYMA

Utilities

+1.76%

PAMPA, CEPU

Consumer Disc.

+1.74%

MIRGOR, MERCADOLIBRE

Materials

+1.71%

ALUAR, LOMA NEGRA

Mining

+0.98%

TXAR

Energy

+0.71%

YPF, TGS

Technology

-4.25%

GLOBANT

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil

177,866

+2.97%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico

66,496

+0.59%

S&P IPSAChile

11,057

+0.28%

S&P MERVALArgentina

3,280,224

+2.43%

MSCI COLCAPColombia

2,307.67

+0.65%

BVL S&P PerúPeru

56,194.27

+1.29%

Full instrument board

InstrumentLastChangeYoYPrev.HighLowVolume

MERVAL

3,280,224

+2.43%

+58.56%

3,202,490

3,285,584

3,193,075

—

USD/ARS

1,487

-0.03%

+18.72%

1,488

1,487

1,487

—

YPF

74,400

-1.81%

+83.82%

75,775

75,500

73,800

64,044

GGAL

8,350

+5.96%

+34.65%

7,880

8,375

7,770

1,929,801

PAMPA

5,185

-0.38%

+43.69%

5,205

5,300

5,120

125,060

TXAR

671.00

+0.98%

+6.68%

664.50

673.00

641.00

296,288

ALUAR

978.00

+0.98%

+42.83%

968.50

984.00

956.00

149,257

TGS

9,610

+3.22%

+43.00%

9,310

9,610

9,135

38,741

CEPU

2,405

+3.89%

+64.67%

2,315

2,405

2,263

261,328

MIRGOR

17,375

+1.02%

-18.05%

17,200

17,500

17,000

541

COME

45.90

+1.06%

-11.18%

45.42

46.89

45.22

3,053,148

LOMA NEGRA

3,583

+2.43%

+31.23%

3,498

3,603

3,470

221,199

BYMA

314.00

+1.37%

+59.19%

309.75

315.00

306.50

228,225

TELECOM ARG

4,245

+3.03%

+92.52%

4,120

4,248

4,048

24,793

GLOBANT

29.96

-4.25%

-64.84%

31.29

32.19

29.81

1,379,752

MERCADOLIBRE

1,852

+2.46%

-22.42%

1,808

1,884

1,810

404,791

Largest moves today

GGAL

8,350

+5.96%

GLOBANT

29.96

-4.25%

CEPU

2,405

+3.89%

TGS

9,610

+3.22%

TELECOM ARG

4,245

+3.03%

MERCADOLIBRE

1,852

+2.46%

MERVAL

3,280,224

+2.43%

LOMA NEGRA

3,583

+2.43%

The session read

The S&P MERVAL rose 2.43%, with breadth positive — 11 of 14 names higher. Telecom led, while Technology lagged.

03 Why it moved — Milei’s financing plan pulls country risk toward 400

The improvement in sovereign bonds, the payment of debt to private creditors, and the presentation of the 2026-2027 financing programme all contributed to compressing the indicator. Country risk touched 403 points on Friday and, even with no local market open for the holiday, JPMorgan’s gauge kept deepening its downward trend into July, edging toward the 400-point threshold last seen in 2018.

The financing plan itself was designed to reassure investors on how Argentina covers roughly eighteen months of foreign-currency maturities, using local issuance, multilateral-backed loans, IMF disbursements, privatisations and central-bank dollar purchases — the kind of detail that has underpinned the bank-stock and bond rally all week.

Not everyone is fully convinced on cost: private analysts point to the speed of the improvement but warn that issuing debt abroad would still carry an elevated cost, with external credit access still expensive. One local consultancy calculated that, with country risk near 404 points and US 10-year yields around 4.49%, a sovereign issuance would yield roughly 8.6% annually — above the 6.3%-7.75% available on World Bank or IDB-backed loans.

That’s precisely why the bank-ADR complex — Galicia, BBVA Argentina, Banco Macro, Central Puerto — did the heavy lifting on the session: they are the names most directly geared to a falling discount rate on Argentine risk, while energy names like YPF, more exposed to global crude and capex cycles, sat out the rally.

04 The day’s movers

Driver

Level / Move

Change

Note

Grupo Galicia (GGAL)

$11m turnover (BYMA)

+5.8%

Session’s most-traded domestic name; its New York ADR jumped further, up 9%

Banco Macro (BMA)

ADR, Wall Street

+5.8%

Rate-sensitive lender rode the country-risk rally alongside Galicia

Central Puerto (CEPU)

ADR, Wall Street

+6.0%

Generator led energy ADRs higher alongside TGS

YPF (YPFD)

$3m turnover (BYMA)

−1.8%

Scan’s biggest domestic decliner, energy laggard even as risk appetite improved

Pampa Energía (PAMP)

—

−0.5%

Also among the scan’s domestic laggards

The turnover data confirms where the real money moved: Grupo Galicia’s ordinary shares topped the BYMA tape at roughly $11 million, more than triple the next-busiest domestic name, while its ADR complex — plus Banco Macro’s and Central Puerto’s — did even more work in New York with gains of 5.8% to 6%.

Two CEDEAR-style cross-listed instruments also featured heavily on the most-traded list but say nothing about domestic Argentina: MercadoLibre’s Buenos Aires-listed CEDEAR rose 2.1% on $3 million of turnover and the EWZ Brazil ETF proxy jumped 3.9% on about $1 million, both moves reflecting Nasdaq and regional sentiment plus the peso rather than any Argentine operating result.

05 The regional scoreboard

Index

Country

Change

Merval

Argentina

+2.43%

Bovespa

Brazil

—

IPSA

Chile

—

IPC

Mexico

+0.82%

COLCAP

Colombia

—

Argentina’s Merval outpaced its regional peer with the clearest verified move of the session; Mexico’s IPC was also firmer, up 0.82% at midday as it tried to snap a run of losses tied to Middle East jitters, though that reading was captured before the New York close.

The live market board above carries the closes for Bovespa, IPSA and COLCAP; without a same-day verified print for those three, they are left blank here rather than estimated.

06 The technical picture

Country risk’s slide to 402 basis points puts JPMorgan’s EMBI+ gauge on the doorstep of the 400-point mark, a level unseen since 2018 and the clearest technical trigger traders are watching for the reform trade to gain further legitimacy with foreign funds.

On the currency side, USD/ARS at 1,487 sits just 0.3% below its 52-week high of 1,492 — effectively the peso’s weakest zone of the past year — making that level the key line in the sand; a close above it would mark a fresh 52-week low for the currency, while a retreat toward the middle of its 1,273-1,492 range would ease pressure on importers and dollar-linked contracts.

The ARGT proxy’s rebound to 95.07 leaves it 7.3% below its 52-week high of 102.57 but well clear of its 66.80 low, consistent with a market recovering within a wide range rather than testing either extreme outright.

07 What to watch

400-point country risk floor: Whether JPMorgan’s EMBI+ Argentina gauge closes below 400bp next week — a level unseen since 2018 and a psychological marker for the Milei reform trade.

Peso’s weak extreme: USD/ARS sits just 0.3% off its 52-week high of 1,492; a break above that level would mark a fresh yearly low for the currency.

Bank ADR complex: Whether Grupo Galicia’s 9% jump and the 5.8%-6% gains in Banco Macro, Central Puerto and peers hold once Monday’s delayed BYMA settlement clears the tape.

YPF and Pampa’s laggard status: Energy names underperformed the financials-led rally; watch for a catch-up trade if oil-linked ADRs join the bank complex.

Background: Argentina’s Inflation Is Falling Monthly and Rising Annually.

Background: Argentina Paid 44% of Its Year’s Dollar Debt in a Single Day.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the Merval rise on a non-working holiday?

Trading continued on a reduced basis under Argentina’s non-working day, and the S&P Merval still gained 2.43%, though volumes were thin and trades settle only on Monday.

Why didn’t the peso strengthen alongside the rally?

USD/ARS closed near 1,487, just 0.3% off its 52-week high, as official FX markets saw little activity with banks shut for the holiday, leaving the currency effectively pinned near its weakest levels of the year.

What is Argentina’s country risk and why does it matter?

It is JPMorgan’s EMBI+ spread measuring the extra yield investors demand on Argentine sovereign bonds over US Treasuries; it fell to 402 basis points, its lowest since 2018, reflecting improved confidence in the government’s 2026-27 financing plan.

Which stocks led and lagged?

Grupo Galicia, Banco Macro and Central Puerto ADRs led with gains of 5.8% to 9% in New York, while YPF (−1.8%) and Pampa Energía (−0.5%) were the scan’s biggest domestic laggards.

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