Grid outlook: Visayas grid likely to face tight power margins again

CEBU CITY, Philippines — The Visayas grid is expected to operate on razor-thin power margins for five straight days next week, according to the latest outlook released by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP).

Based on NGCP’s weekly forecast, total available supply will hover between 2,736 megawatts (MW) and 2,907 MW from Monday, July 13, to Friday, July 17, 2026.

Meanwhile, system peak demand is projected to range from 2,429 MW to 2,470 MW.

READ MORE: Visayas grid operating normal but…

The tightest margin is expected on Friday, July 17, when supply of 2,736 MW is projected to cover a peak demand of 2,429 MW, leaving an operating margin of just 307 MW.

Tuesday, July 14, follows closely, with supply at 2,758 MW against a 2,439-MW peak, or a 319-MW buffer.

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to see slightly wider but still thin margins, at 352 MW and 351 MW, respectively.

Monday offers the largest breathing room in the outlook, with supply outpacing demand by 464 MW.

Thin reserves

Thin operating margins such as these have repeatedly triggered yellow alert advisories over the grid in recent months, a status NGCP declares when available capacity is insufficient to meet the contingency reserve requirement or the buffer needed to keep the system stable in case a major power plant unexpectedly trips offline.

A red alert, the more serious classification, is issued when supply can no longer sufficiently cover actual demand.

The Visayas grid has been under close watch in recent months amid recurring alerts linked to unplanned outages at key power facilities, including Therma Visayas Inc. and, more recently, the Palm Concepcion Power Corporation (PCPC).

READ MORE: Visayas grid faces 1st red alert in July

Additionally, the Cebu-Iloilo PEDC (Panay Energy Development Corp.) transmission line tripped, isolating the power plant’s Unit 3, which has been recently reactivated.

The Department of Energy has previously pointed to aging plants and thin reserves as recurring stress points for the island grid, prompting calls to fast-track battery energy storage system (BESS) projects and other reserve-boosting measures.

Consumers in Cebu, Iloilo, Bacolod, and other parts of the Visayas have felt the impact of tight supply through unplanned power interruptions during past alert periods, particularly during the peak afternoon and early evening hours when demand typically spikes.

READ MORE: Visayas grid red alert up, rotational brownouts expected

Editor’s note: This article is based on NGCP’s weekly supply and demand outlook. Figures are subject to change as NGCP updates its forecasts.

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