Live: Markets on edge as US-Iran war flares again, oil price under pressure

Pinned

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 6:50am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 6:50am

Market snapshot

By Stephen Letts

ASX 200 futures: +0.5% to 8,814 points

ASX 200 (Friday): +0.5% to 8,806 points

Australian dollar: flat at 69.46 US cents

Wall Street (Friday): S&P 500 +0.4%, Dow +0.3% Nasdaq +0.3%

Europe (Friday): Dax -0.2%, FTSE +0.2%, Eurostoxx -0.2%

Spot gold: flat at $US4,120/ounce

Oil: Brent futures -04% to $US71.01/barrel, WTI futures -0.9% to $U71.41/barrel

Iron ore (Friday): +0.6% to $US99.30/tonne

Copper (LME, Friday): +2.4% to $US13,481/tonne

Bitcoin: -0.3% at $US64,153

Prices current at around 7:00am AEST

Key Event

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 8:22am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 8:22am

Oil jumps on opening trade

By Stephen Letts

It's hardly surprising given the escalation in Gulf hostilities over the weekend and the targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian drones, but the price of oil has spiked this morning in early trade.

At 8:20am AEST:

Brent crude futures: +3.8% to $US78.92/barrel

West Texas Intermediate crude futures: +3.8% to $74.13/barrel

Key Event

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 8:10am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 8:10am

Apple sues OpenAI, two former employees for trade secrets theft

By Stephen Letts

Apple has sued OpenAI and two former employees, alleging misappropriation of its trade secrets to benefit the ChatGPT-owner's foray into consumer hardware, a dramatic escalation of already simmering tension between the two companies.

The complaint accuses OpenAI of orchestrating a broad effort to systematically acquire and exploit Apple's confidential information through former employees, recruiting practices and supplier relationships to accelerate its push into the consumer hardware business.

"We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets," OpenAI said in a statement.

"We remain focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere."

The lawsuit sets up a battle over who will control future AI devices that may not use traditional apps or operating systems — devices which, if successful, would direct consumer attention away from Apple's best-selling iPhone.

Analysts believe OpenAI is working on a phone or other device of its own.

Tensions between the two tech companies have strained their relationship, as the race to develop AI products has intensified competition for talent and proprietary technology.

"Apple sees OpenAI moving from partner to potential rival, while OpenAI is trying to reduce its dependence on the iPhone and build a direct relationship with consumers," PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore told Reuters.

"Even if the allegations are not proven, the lawsuit could delay OpenAI's hardware ambitions and further weaken what is already becoming an increasingly fragile partnership."

Apple's lawsuit, which was filed in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, comes just after OpenAI successfully fended off a legal challenge from Elon Musk's xAI.

The two former Apple employees named in the suit are Chang Liu, a former senior system electrical engineer, and former vice president of product design for iPhone and Apple Watch, Tang Yew Tan. Neither immediately responded to a request for comment.

Apple alleged that Liu failed to return a company-issued work laptop and later used an authentication bug to access Apple's internal network, downloading "dozens of Apple's confidential hardware-related files."

The iPhone maker also claimed that OpenAI's hardware chief Tan had been "methodically using Apple's confidential information to benefit OpenAI" before his departure by emailing himself information about Apple suppliers and internal industry summaries.

Tan worked on the iPhone for most of his 24-year tenure at Apple, according to his LinkedIn page.

Apple alleged that Tan encouraged Apple employees to bring parts from Apple to job interviews at OpenAI for "show and tell" sessions, citing an incident in its filing where one OpenAI job candidate allegedly said that he "didn't even know we could take those from the office."

OpenAI Foundation, OpenAI Group PBC, the company's commercial arm, and io Products, which OpenAI acquired, were also named as defendants.

Reuters

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:45am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:45am

US earnings season opens with big banks reporting

By Stephen Letts

The big investment banks lead off Wall Street's second-quarter results season this week.

Expectations are pretty bullish, with earnings across the S&P 500 expected to be about 24% higher than this time last year.

Apart from the likes of Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Bank of America, other high-profile companies tabling results include Netflix, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson.

Key Event

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:32am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:32am

Strait of Hormuz looking empty

By Stephen Letts

Just a quick check on shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, via energy investment consultancy HFI Research.

HFI's take from this morning is commercial vessels are again not prepared to risk a crossing.

"Some traffic in Iran's lane, but it's very dead," HFI said, which we assume is more a metaphorical than literal assessment.

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:30am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:30am

This week: Are businesses and consumers still gloomy? Chinese economy likely to slow further

By Stephen Letts

Australia:

Tue: NAB business conditions (Jun), Westpac consumer sentiment (Jul)

Thu: CBA household spending insights (Jul)

International:

Tue: US — CPI (Jun)

CN — Trade balance (Jun)

Wed: CN — GDP (Q2), Retail sales, industrial production, infrastructure spending (Jun)

US — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks, PPI (Jun)

CA — Bank of Canada rates decision

Thu: US — Retail sales (Jun)

Fri: US — Industrial production (Jun)

It's another data-light week with the only local numbers of interest coming from private sector surveys of business conditions and consumer sentiment.

On Westpac's reading, consumers are deeply pessimistic. Tuesday's figures are unlikely to show much improvement.

NAB's business survey, also on Tuesday, is also likely to show business owners are glum, although conditions are not that bad.

Offshore, most interest will centre on US consumer inflation (Tuesday) and producer inflation (Wednesday). Any increase in core measures would materially increase the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting.

China publishes its second-quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday. The consensus is growth will have cooled noticeably to around 4.4% year-on-year as weak domestic consumption and property activity outweigh resilient exports and a rebound in industrial activity.

Key Event

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:14am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 7:14am

Markets on edge as Gulf hostilities resume, ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz

By Stephen Letts

Wall Street finished the week on a positive note, with the S&P 500 closing just shy of a record high.

S&P 500: +0.4%

Nasdaq: +0.3%

Dow: +0.3%

Sentiment was buoyed by the robust Nasdaq debut of South Korea's SK Hynix as well as forecasts of another solid rise in corporate earnings in Wall Street's second quarter results that will start rolling out this week.

Analysts are expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge 24% from a year ago, with technology companies driving much of the growth, according to LSEG.

Chipmaker SK Hynix shares jumped 14% on their Nasdaq debut, after the firm raised about $US26.5 billion, indicating strong investor appetite to gain exposure to the AI supply chain.

The offering, which will finance new factories and equipment to meet surging AI chip demand, is set to be the world's second-biggest share sale after SpaceX's record-breaking IPO last month.

While ASX 200 futures pointed to a positive start (+0.4%) when trading closed on Saturday morning, that was before the missiles started flying.

Oil prices edged lower, despite US President Donald Trump declaring an end to the Gulf ceasefire, while firing off more verbal salvos at Iran's leadership.

"Oil prices have also remained remarkably calm despite the conflict spilling over (once again) into some neighbouring countries," BMO Senior Economist Carl Campus wrote in a research note.

"While there are several factors that could be helping prevent a bigger surge … perhaps it's simply a reflection of the underlying optimism regarding ongoing talks."

Well, that was Friday.

The optimism will be sorely tested by a resumption of US attacks on Iran and Iranian attacks on other Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tanker traffic has again slowed to a trickle and oil prices are expected to come under renewed pressure this morning.

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 6:46am

Mon 13 Jul 2026 at 6:46am

Good morning

By Stephen Letts

Good morning and welcome to another day on the ABC markets and finance blog.

Stephen Letts from ABC business team limbering up for blow-by-blow coverage of the day's events with every post, hopefully, a winner, but none to be construed as financial advice.

You know the drum; we've been here before.

Wall Street closed the week on a positive note on Friday only for the missiles to start raining down again across the gulf over the weekend, followed in short order by Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed again.

Before the re-escalation of US-Iran hostilities, the ASX was holding up well and poised to add to Friday's gain.

When trading closed early on Saturday morning (AEST), ASX 200 futures were pointing to a 0.4% gain, but there's no guarantee that will be delivered this morning.

As always, the game's afoot, so let's get blogging.