Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Monday, July 13, 2026

Key Facts

The 11:25 Focus survey is today’s first domestic read, and traders will scan it for whether the year-end Selic median has crept back above 14% after weeks of stubborn inflation projections.

The August 3–4 Copom meeting is the live wager, with most economists now split between a final 25bp cut to 14.00% and an outright hold, a hawkish tilt versus the easing path priced earlier in the year.

Tomorrow’s US CPI is the elephant in the room, and Brazilian desks will position defensively today into the 12:30 BRT print that dictates the dollar’s global tone and the reais’s carry appeal.

USD/BRL sits near 5.1075, closer to the strong end of its 4.8909–5.5901 52-week range, leaving the real richly valued on carry heading into the data.

The Ibovespa closed at 177,866 after a 2.97% surge, but that gap-up leaves it stretched short-term and roughly 10.5% below its 198,657 52-week high, the levels, not the momentum, matter at the bell.

Today’s Focus

Brazil opens with a light domestic calendar but a heavy question — how much room the central bank still has to cut, and whether the real can hold its carry-fuelled gains into tomorrow’s US inflation print.

The Selic sits at 14.25% after three straight quarter-point cuts, and the August meeting is now genuinely two-sided: a final trim to 14.00% or a pause, with inflation expectations still stuck above the 3% target.

Today’s 11:25 BRT Focus Market Readout is the sole domestic gauge before the bell, watched for any further creep in the year-end Selic median that would harden the hawkish case.

With no first-tier earnings due today, the tape will trade off the dollar, the commodity complex and positioning ahead of the 12:30 BRT US CPI tomorrow — a classic wait-and-see session.

What matters today. Whether the Focus median and pre-CPI caution keep the real bid or trigger profit-taking after Friday’s 2.97% Ibovespa surge.

Today’s Economic Events

08:25 BRT

Brazil — BCB Focus Market Readout: no forecast published

19:00 BRT

Brazil — Business Confidence (Jul): consensus 46.3, previous 46.7

06:25 BRT

United States — Fed Bowman Speech: no forecast published

07:00 BRT

United States — OPEC Meeting: no forecast published

09:30 BRT

Germany — Current Account (May): consensus 15.1, previous 13.8

10:00 BRT

France — 6-Month BTF Auction: previous 2.455

10:00 BRT

France — 3-Month BTF Auction: previous 2.374

10:00 BRT

France — 12-Month BTF Auction: previous 2.548

13:30 BRT

United States — Fed Waller Speech: no forecast published

15:00 BRT

United States — Budget Balance (Jun): consensus -132.8, previous -293

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01 The Ibovespa setup in one read

Brazil comes in on the front foot after a strong Friday, but the mood at the open is caution rather than conviction — the market is positioning, not chasing.

The anchor is the Selic at 14.25%, and the question that hangs over every desk is the August 3–4 Copom decision, now finely balanced between a last 25bp cut and a hold.

Today’s only scheduled domestic marker before the bell is the 11:25 BRT Focus survey, the central bank’s weekly poll of economists, which will show whether the year-end rate view is still drifting hawkish.

Everything else — the real, the miners, the banks — trades in the shadow of tomorrow’s US CPI at 12:30 BRT, the print that sets the dollar’s global tone and the reais’s carry math.

Assessment — Stretched but bid, hostage to CPI MEDIUM

The domestic setup is constructive — high real rates, a firm real and a resilient labour market — but the Ibovespa’s Friday leap leaves it technically extended, and the reais’s carry appeal is entirely contingent on tomorrow’s US inflation read. Watch the Focus Selic median at 11:25 BRT for the first hint of whether August’s Copom is a cut or a hold.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

Instrument

Last close

Indicated

Watch today

Ibovespa

177,866

— cautious/flat

198,657 52w high; short-term overbought after +2.97%

USD/BRL

5.1075

— steady

5.00 psychological floor; CPI-driven dollar tomorrow

S&P 500 (context)

7,575

—

US tape and CPI set global risk tone

The Ibovespa’s Friday surge — up 2.97% to 177,866 in step with Wall Street — leaves the index roughly 10.5% below its 52-week high of 198,657 and looking stretched into a data-heavy week.

USD/BRL near 5.1075 sits toward the firm end of its 4.8909–5.5901 range, meaning the real is richly priced on carry and vulnerable to any hawkish US CPI surprise tomorrow.

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board

B3 · pre-open setup

Jul 13, 2026 · 02:44

Ibovespa · benchmark

177,866

+2.97%

+30.07% over 12 months

Market breadth · 33 names

67% advancing

22 ▲ advancing11 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.11

-0.04%

EUR / BRL

5.82

-0.79%

Selic rate

14.25%

·

Brent crude

79.46

+4.54%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Utilities

+5.15%

ENEV3

Financials

+3.99%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Mining

+3.90%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Consumer Disc.

+3.40%

AZZA3, LREN3

Industrials

+3.00%

WEGE3, RENT3

Consumer Staples

+1.16%

SLCE3, ABEV3

Materials

+1.04%

SUZB3, KLABIN

Energy

+0.42%

PETR4, PRIO3

Other

-0.04%

BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil

177,866

+2.97%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico

66,496

+0.59%

S&P IPSAChile

11,057

+0.28%

S&P MERVALArgentina

3,280,224

+2.43%

MSCI COLCAPColombia

2,307.67

+0.65%

BVL S&P PerúPeru

56,194.27

+1.29%

Full instrument board

InstrumentLastChangeYoYPrev.HighLowVolume

IBOV

177,866

+2.97%

+30.07%

172,742

—

—

—

USD/BRL

5.11

-0.04%

-8.33%

5.11

5.11

5.11

—

EUR/BRL

5.82

-0.79%

-10.51%

5.87

5.83

5.82

—

SELIC

14.25%

—

—

—

—

—

BRENT

79.46

+4.54%

+14.81%

76.01

79.46

77.82

5,106

WTI

74.70

+4.61%

+11.53%

71.41

74.70

73.18

32,245

IRON ORE

161.91

—

+67.33%

161.91

161.91

1

GOLD

4,064

-0.97%

+21.26%

4,104

4,112

4,058

29,109

SILVER

58.42

-2.33%

+51.88%

59.81

59.80

58.38

7,207

LITHIUM

72.32

-0.69%

+79.99%

72.82

72.63

71.91

195,580

SOY

1,196

-0.02%

+19.98%

1,197

1,207

1,195

25,650

CORN

467.75

+6.79%

+13.33%

438.00

469.50

466.50

35,077

WHEAT

644.25

+1.94%

+20.65%

632.00

653.00

642.75

9,847

COFFEE

318.60

-10.74%

+4.22%

356.95

340.70

318.60

31,069

SUGAR

14.86

-1.72%

-8.83%

15.12

15.14

14.71

70,711

ORANGE JUICE

143.25

-4.44%

-54.36%

149.90

149.95

142.25

778

COTTON

80.87

+6.18%

+21.77%

76.16

79.67

78.28

15,888

BEEF

235.20

-0.02%

+7.23%

235.25

236.08

232.93

34,721

CATTLE

354.60

-0.44%

+10.99%

356.15

358.40

351.45

10,473

COCOA

6,100

-3.31%

-31.84%

6,309

6,310

5,777

26,149

PETR4

39.65

+1.12%

+22.98%

39.21

39.97

39.34

27,213,400

VALE3

74.18

+1.41%

+34.19%

73.15

74.66

73.12

22,118,800

SUZB3

41.55

+1.27%

-16.65%

41.03

41.87

41.20

8,080,900

KLABIN

17.54

+0.80%

-5.42%

17.40

17.64

17.41

5,591,700

SLCE3

14.02

+1.67%

-13.10%

13.79

14.10

13.80

3,740,500

ABEV3

15.82

+0.64%

+19.58%

15.72

15.99

15.72

34,764,700

ITUB4

44.30

+4.02%

+29.44%

42.59

44.34

43.23

28,691,300

BBDC4

18.86

+4.78%

+16.85%

18.00

18.87

18.32

47,714,200

BBAS3

20.58

+2.90%

-2.97%

20.00

20.67

20.25

24,323,000

B3SA3

15.42

+4.26%

+9.44%

14.79

15.53

15.19

41,437,800

WEGE3

46.51

+1.68%

+16.57%

45.74

46.80

46.11

7,145,200

PRIO3

55.45

-0.29%

+32.66%

55.61

56.29

55.04

6,818,400

RENT3

41.10

+4.31%

+7.45%

39.40

41.32

40.31

8,338,600

AZZA3

19.10

+3.47%

-47.66%

18.46

19.30

18.81

1,703,700

CSNA3

5.18

+7.92%

-37.82%

4.80

5.20

4.95

14,591,200

GGBR4

23.01

+2.36%

+36.32%

22.48

23.10

22.58

10,449,600

ENEV3

27.55

+5.15%

+107.61%

26.20

27.55

26.61

16,185,800

LREN3

14.62

+3.32%

-23.70%

14.15

14.84

14.49

14,503,100

Largest moves today

COFFEE

318.60

-10.74%

CSNA3

5.18

+7.92%

CORN

467.75

+6.79%

COTTON

80.87

+6.18%

ENEV3

27.55

+5.15%

BBDC4

18.86

+4.78%

WTI

74.70

+4.61%

BRENT

79.46

+4.54%

The session read

The Ibovespa rose 2.97%, with breadth positive — 22 of 33 names higher. Utilities led, while Other lagged.

03 On the B3 radar today — the Focus survey and pre-CPI positioning

Item

When

Why it matters

BCB Focus Market Readout

11:25 BRT

Weekly economist poll; year-end Selic and IPCA medians frame the August Copom bet

Business Confidence (FGV)

22:00 BRT

Gauge of industrial sentiment into a slowing 2026 economy

CFTC BRL net speculative positions

19:30 BRT

Prior +44.7k; shows how long the market already is the real ahead of CPI

US CPI (context, tomorrow)

12:30 BRT Tue

Core est +0.3%; sets dollar tone and the reais’s carry appeal

The Focus report is the day’s one genuinely domestic catalyst — it summarises market expectations collected until the previous Friday and is released every Monday, covering inflation, the exchange rate and the Selic path.

The CFTC positioning data matters because it reveals how crowded the long-real carry trade already is; a stretched net-long reading amplifies the downside if tomorrow’s US CPI runs hot.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The starting point is a policy rate of 14.25% — at its 16–17 June meeting the Copom cut the Selic by a further 25 basis points to 14.25%, a unanimous decision marking the third consecutive quarter-point cut since easing began in March.

The catch is that policy is still deliberately tight, and inflation has not fully cooperated — inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain above target, at 4.9% and 4.0% respectively.

That has pulled the year-end wager hawkish: Brazil’s financial market raised its Selic forecast to 14.00% by the end of 2026, up from 13.75%, on persistent inflationary pressure.

The next decision lands soon — the BCB will reconvene on 3–4 August — and the pre-Copom questionnaire showed most respondents expected the bank to then hold the Selic through the following two meetings, in August and September, framing today’s Focus read as the next clue.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

There is no first-tier B3 earnings release scheduled for today, so single-name flow will follow the macro tape and the commodity complex rather than fresh corporate news.

The next hard corporate catalyst is Vale’s quarterly output — the company will release its 2Q26 production and sales report on 21 July 2026 after market close, followed by financials on 30 July, keeping the miner a story for later this month.

Vale carries context from a strong first quarter, when iron ore production reached 69.7 Mt, up 3% year over year, and full-year 2026 iron ore guidance was reiterated at 335–345 Mt.

With the domestic slate quiet, VALE3, PETR4 and the big banks — the reliable turnover leaders — will set the index’s direction on external cues rather than company-specific triggers.

06 The levels to watch at the open

On the index, 177,866 is the reference after Friday’s jump; the round 180,000 handle is the near-term overhead, while the 198,657 52-week high remains the longer-term ceiling roughly 10.5% away.

On the currency, USD/BRL near 5.1075 leaves the psychologically important 5.00 floor in sight, with the 4.8909 52-week low as the ceiling of real strength — a hot US CPI tomorrow is the most likely trigger to unwind it.

The tell today will be the Focus Selic median at 11:25 BRT: a further drift toward or above 14.00% hardens the August-hold case and supports the carry trade, while a softer read revives cut hopes.

Given the extended tape and the looming US print, a quiet, range-bound session with defensive positioning is the base case rather than a fresh leg higher.

07 What to watch

Focus Selic median: Any move above the 14.00% year-end view hardens the August-hold case and firms the real’s carry

US CPI tomorrow: Core est +0.3%; a hot print lifts the dollar and threatens the reais’s rich carry positioning

CFTC BRL positioning: A crowded net-long real magnifies downside risk if CPI surprises hawkish

Ibovespa technicals: Overbought after +2.97%; watch 180,000 overhead and whether the gap-up holds

Background: Key Market Events for the Week of July 13–17, 2026.

Background: Guatemala’s First Public-Private Highway Reaches a Milestone.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Copom expected to cut in August?

It is genuinely two-sided. The Selic is 14.25% after three straight 25bp cuts, and the market is split between a final trim to 14.00% and a hold, with the pre-Copom questionnaire pointing to a pause in August and September.

What is the Focus report and why does it move markets?

It is the central bank’s weekly survey of economists’ expectations for inflation, the Selic and the exchange rate, released every Monday. Traders read the year-end Selic median for the direction of the rate-cut wager.

Why does US CPI matter for Brazilian assets?

The print sets the global dollar tone. A hot US inflation reading strengthens the dollar and erodes the appeal of the reais’s high-yield carry trade, pressuring both the currency and B3.

Are there major Brazilian earnings today?

No first-tier B3 results are scheduled for today. The next big corporate catalyst is Vale’s 2Q26 production report on 21 July, so today’s flow follows the macro tape.

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