Colombia’s Economy Grew Faster in Spring, but Mining Shrank

MarketS

Key Facts

—The pace. Colombia economic growth ran at an estimated 2.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2.1 percent a year earlier.

—The half-year. First-half growth is put at about 2.4 percent, still below what the economy is thought capable of.

—The laggards. Mining was the only sector to shrink, at minus 0.5 percent, while construction nearly stalled at 0.6 percent.

—The drivers. Recreation led at 9.7 percent, with finance up 6 percent and industry up 3.7 percent.

—The source. The figures come from a monthly nowcast by Bancolombia, the country’s largest bank, with a June cut-off.

Colombia’s economy sped up a little in the spring, with Colombia economic growth estimated at 2.7 percent in the second quarter, though a shrinking mining sector and near-flat construction show how uneven the recovery remains.

The estimate comes from a monthly tracking model run by Bancolombia, the country’s biggest lender. It marks a step up from the two point one percent recorded in the same quarter of 2025.

For a foreign investor, the headline is reassuring but the detail is not. Growth is positive, yet it still runs below what economists think Colombia can sustain.

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Where Colombia economic growth is coming from

The spread across sectors is wide. Recreation led the field, growing almost ten percent, with financial services up six percent and industry up close to four.

Agriculture and professional services also added momentum, while public administration, retail and utilities grew at a steadier clip. The picture is of a broad but shallow expansion.

Two sectors drag. Construction slowed sharply to just over half a percent, held back by the high cost of borrowing, and mining was the only activity to contract outright.

That mining fall matters more than its size suggests. Oil and coal still earn much of Colombia’s foreign exchange, so a weak extractive sector feeds straight into exports and the trade balance.

Why Colombia economic growth stays below its potential

The main brake is the price of money. Colombia’s central bank has pushed its policy rate to twelve percent, one of the highest in the region, while most neighbours have been cutting.

It is fighting stubborn inflation, which ran at more than six percent in June, well above the three percent target. High rates cool spending and, above all, investment.

Investment is the economy’s weak spot. It has stalled since the pandemic and now sits at around a sixth of output, low by Colombian standards and a limit on how fast the country can grow.

Politics hangs over the numbers. A presidential vote is due in 2026, and investors are watching whether the next government tightens the budget or leans further on public spending.

For now the read is a familiar one. Consumption and services keep Colombia moving, but weak investment, dear credit and a soft mining sector cap the upside.

There are genuine bright spots. The labour market has held up well, with unemployment near its lowest for the month of May in years, and remittances from Colombians abroad keep flowing in.

Those inflows help explain the resilience of the peso. A high interest rate and steady remittances have kept the currency firm even as the political noise around the central bank has grown.

The larger worry sits with the budget. Analysts expect the fiscal deficit near six and a half percent of output this year, a gap that ratings agencies say the next government will have to close.

A word on the numbers themselves. A nowcast is a real-time estimate built from partial monthly data, so it can be revised as the official statistics office publishes firmer figures later in the year.

Even so, the direction is consistent. The spring reading sits a touch above the pace seen at the start of the year, suggesting a modest, if unspectacular, firming of activity.

How fast is Colombia economic growth right now?

A Bancolombia nowcast estimates growth of two point seven percent in the second quarter of 2026, up from two point one percent a year earlier, with first-half growth at about two point four percent. That is positive but still below the pace economists consider the economy’s potential.

Which sectors are driving Colombia economic growth?

Recreation led at nearly ten percent, followed by financial services at six percent and industry at close to four percent, with agriculture and professional services also contributing. Construction nearly stalled just above half a percent, and mining was the only sector to shrink.

Why is Colombia economic growth below potential?

High interest rates, set at twelve percent to fight above-target inflation, are cooling spending and investment. Investment has stalled since the pandemic at around a sixth of output, and election-year uncertainty adds caution, all of which cap the economy’s growth.

Colombia's economy grew an estimated 2.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2.1 percent in the same period a year earlier, with first-half growth at about 2.4 percent. That is still below the pace economists think the country can sustain.

Recreation led all sectors at 9.7 percent growth, followed by financial services at 6 percent and industry at 3.7 percent. On the downside, mining was the only sector to actually shrink, falling 0.5 percent, while construction nearly stalled at just 0.6 percent.

Colombia's central bank has set its policy rate at 12 percent — one of the highest in the region — to fight inflation that was running above 6 percent in June, well above the 3 percent target, and those high borrowing costs are cooling spending and investment. Investment has stalled since the pandemic and now sits at around a sixth of total economic output, which limits how quickly the country can grow.