Opportunity voters lean Labour, but party says it 'doesn't drive our decision making'

With Opportunity on the rise, new polling from RNZ shows the party's supporters are far more keen on a Labour-led government than a National-led one.

But leader Qiulae Wong says that preference would not "drive" the decision-making of the leadership group who would make the call.

Instead, that choice - and the governing arrangement used - would depend more on the parties and policies at the negotiating table.

Opportunity knocks at 5% threshold

The headline figure for Opportunity from the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll is that their party vote at 4.7 percent, just shy of the 5 percent needed to enter Parliament on party vote numbers alone, and the second poll to do so after the 4.6 in the 1News-Verian result last month.

Wong told RNZ it showed that people were wanting to see an "alternative coalition partner that is there to be constructive and bring people together".

"That's certainly what we're hearing on the ground, and so I think it's really encouraging to see it show up in the polls as well."

The RNZ poll figure is a doubling of support since the last edition, is Opportunity's highest result in the series on record, and puts the party's likelihood of reaching the 5 percent threshold within margin-of-error territory.

Seeing similar results across multiple polls adds validity to the claim the party's rise is a genuine effect being recorded rather than just an outlying, rogue number.

With months of campaigning still to go, the trajectory is undeniably promising for the party - with the proviso that others parties will be doing all they can to shore up their own support and erode that of opponents, including Opportunity.

"We've still got a wee way to go, but given that this is reflected now across multiple polls, and we've obviously seen this trend going up over the past eight months, we're feeling like we're in a good position," Wong said.

"We're still we're very conscious of the fact that the next four months is going to be very intense and a lot of hard work, so definitely not taking our eyes off that, got to keep our foot on the accelerator."

Opportunity voters leaning towards Labour

The RNZ-Reid Research survey asked specifically if voters would prefer a government led by Labour or National.

Overall, voters were more likely - at 43.4 percent - to want a Labour-led government, while 37.7 percent preferred National.

When looking just at those saying they would vote for Opportunity, the split was far more stark: slightly lower support for a Labour-led government at 41.1 percent, but support for a National-led one much lower at just 21.3 percent.

Wong has made an explicit pitch to be an alternative kingmaker - snatching the proverbial crown from New Zealand First - but pushed back on whether the party would take its supporters clear preference for a Labour government into account.

"That doesn't drive our decision making," Wong said.

"Our approach... is to negotiate with the largest party first, see where we can find that common ground, and if we feel like we have to compromise too much on our values or the policies that we want to see enacted, we would then go to the second-largest."

Opportunity's supporters also had a higher-than-average undecided response to the question with 22 percent preferring 'neither' party, and 15.6 percent 'don't know' compared to the 12.8 percent and 6.1 percent baseline of the wider electorate.

"You could interpret those as a possible 'don't mind' as well which also shows, I think, there are a large bunch of New Zealanders who just want to see good progress and honest politicking moving forward... and that's what Opportunity is offering."

Wong said Opportunity's "leadership group" including elected MPs (the caucus) and the board - elected by the wider party membership - would make the final call.

"It's not put out to a vote to the whole membership," she said, drawing a contrast to the approach taken by the Greens.

The party was also "open to all the possibilities" of governing arrangements - a full coalition or confidence-and-supply deal - and would depend on which other parties were in the mix and the policies they were putting forward.

"If we feel that we have to compromise too much on what we want to achieve, then we would we would walk away from that and pursue other options," Wong said.

"Previously, we have talked about sitting on the cross benches as well, that's an option that's still there," Wong said.

"We get one shot at our first term in Parliament and we want to make a really good impression both for voters and for our colleagues there in Parliament too."

She said the party would explain its decision if it had the chance to make one, and would set out bottom lines for negotiations ahead of the election.

"We want to be transparent, because this is one of the things that New Zealanders are really frustrated by and are losing trust in our politicians with that lack of transparency."

National, Labour voters both optimistic Opportunity would back their party

Survey respondents were also asked which party Opportunity would likely side with if it ended up as kingmaker.

Overall, expectations leaned towards Labour at 34.4 percent, with National coming in at 22.4 percent.

However, 'don't know' accounted for 34.1 percent of responses - eclipsing expectations of a National pair-up, and nearly surpassing those for Labour too, with another 9.1 percent saying 'neither'.

By comparison, Opportunity supporters were slightly less likely to think the party would side with Labour (33.7 percent), slightly more likely to think it would side with National (25 percent), and slightly less likely to say "don't know" (32.2 percent), while 9.1 percent said "neither", compared with the wider public.

National and Te Pāti Māori supporters were the only ones who thought Opportunity were more likely to go with National than with Labour.

That suggests National party faithful are not taking Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's messaging - that voting for Opportunity "looks like a vote for Labour and the Greens" at face value.

"It's really great to see that National voters see that we we could be a good partner as well," Wong told RNZ.

"Perhaps the rhetoric coming from some of the leaders is just that - old school, playing into tribal politics, trying to put us in a box rather than try and find the common ground."

Labour supporters were also optimistic about Opportunity siding with them, with nearly half (47 percent) believing that to be the case compared to just an eighth (12.5 percent) thinking the opposite.

Wong said Opportunity "do feel we can align with National or Labour" and pointed to the party's policies as evidence of that.

"Our breakthrough economy policy which is all about investing in innovation and growth I think would be very appealing to National voters, and we have very similar KiwiSaver policies as well," she said.