McKinsey Says Automation Could Add Over 4 GDP Points a Year to Chile by 2030

Chile

Key Facts

—Productivity uplift. McKinsey modelling suggests Chile could gain 2.0–2.5 percentage points of additional annual productivity growth by 2030 from automation and AI.

—GDP trajectory. Combined with baseline growth of roughly 2–3 percent, the productivity boost could push annual GDP growth into the 4–5 percent range under aggressive adoption.

—Task automation. Generative AI alone could automate up to 22 percent of current working hours in Chile by 2030, with traditional AI adding a further 17 percent potential.

—Digital economy. Chile’s digital economy already represents about 22 percent of GDP, roughly US$55 billion, with internet penetration exceeding 90 percent.

—Regional leadership. McKinsey ranks Chile alongside Argentina and Mexico as Latin America’s best-positioned economies for automation-driven productivity gains.

New McKinsey analysis indicates that Chile automation GDP gains could reach several percentage points annually by 2030, positioning the country as a regional front-runner in the race to harness artificial intelligence and robotics for economic growth.

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What McKinsey’s modelling actually shows for Chile

McKinsey’s Future of Work Latin America report, produced in partnership with the Future Investment Initiative, models automation adoption scenarios for six large Latin American economies including Chile. The analysis finds that faster technology adoption could lift annual productivity growth by up to 2.3 percentage points region-wide by 2030, assuming workers displaced by automation are fully redeployed into other productive work.

Within that regional picture, Chile, Argentina and Mexico are identified as the best-positioned economies, with potential annual productivity gains of 2.0–2.5 percentage points under the midpoint automation scenario. A separate Chile-specific country analysis projects that generative AI could automate up to 22 percent of current working hours by 2030, while traditional non-generative AI could handle about 17 percent of hours.

Sectoral detail reveals that roughly 35 percent of food-service hours and 30 percent of office-support hours could be automated in Chile, highlighting that the opportunity extends well beyond mining into services and white-collar work. No public McKinsey document uses the exact phrase “over 4 GDP points a year,” but the 2.0–2.5 point productivity uplift, layered onto Chile’s baseline growth of 2–3 percent, makes a 4–5 percent annual GDP growth trajectory entirely plausible under aggressive adoption.

Chile’s economic starting point and the digital dividend

Chile enters the automation race from a position of relative macroeconomic strength. The OECD projects real GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2024, easing to 2.3 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026, supported by recovering investment, solid consumption and strong external demand for copper.

Inflation is expected to fall steadily toward the central bank’s 3 percent target by early 2026, while gross fixed capital formation grew close to 7 percent in 2025, led by machinery and equipment investment in large mining and energy projects. The digital economy already represents about 22 percent of Chile’s GDP, roughly US$55 billion, with internet penetration exceeding 90 percent.

Government targets under the Chile Digital agenda aim to raise research and development spending to 1 percent of GDP by 2025 and 2 percent by 2030, while expanding angel investment in tech startups from about 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent of GDP by 2035. An independent modelling exercise by Access Partnership and Google estimates that full adoption of eight key digital technologies across ten sectors could capture up to US$96 billion in additional annual economic impact by 2030, equivalent to about 22 percent of Chile’s estimated GDP that year.

Why Chile automation GDP gains matter for global investors

Chile’s material endowments intersect with global automation trends in ways that sharpen the investment case. The country is the world’s largest copper producer and holds vast lithium reserves, both essential for data centres, electric vehicles and power transmission infrastructure that underpin the global AI buildout.

Central Bank board member Alberto Naudon noted in a 2026 speech that Chile has benefited from high copper prices driven by energy transition, digitalisation and increased global defence spending. Automation in Chile’s own mining sector—autonomous haul trucks, AI-driven ore processing and predictive maintenance—could enhance margins even as world demand for copper and lithium rises, creating a virtuous cycle where Chile both supplies the metals powering AI hardware and deploys AI to extract them more efficiently.

The domestic robotics market, valued at around US$65 million in 2025, is concentrated in AI-enabled service robotics for mining, agriculture and logistics. Autonomous and sensor technologies represent a further US$96 million market, with civil and industrial IoT sensing growing 15–20 percent annually, while medical technology revenues are projected at approximately US$2.94 billion in 2025.

The US$100 billion knowledge-services export window

McKinsey’s broader Latin America productivity research points to a potential US$100 billion export opportunity for the region in knowledge-based services—AI, cloud computing and digital services—by 2040. Global revenues for AI software and cloud services could reach up to US$8 trillion by 2040, making them two of the most dynamic and mutually reinforcing arenas of growth worldwide.

Chile, with its open economy, fiscal prudence and deep capital markets, is well-placed to compete for this opportunity, particularly as a hub for Spanish-language AI services, fintech and mining-technology solutions. The country’s comparative advantages could allow it to monetise automation not just through internal productivity gains but through exporting digital and AI services to the wider region and beyond.

Government-backed initiatives including CORFO’s Industria 4.0 programme and Start-Up Chile support research and development in robotics and automation, while the Chile Digital agenda targets AI, data analytics, robotics and cybersecurity firms to represent 10 percent of all businesses by 2030 and 15 percent by 2035. These programmes shape the domestic ecosystem in which automation can diffuse rapidly.

Political economy and the labour reallocation challenge

McKinsey’s modelling repeatedly warns that productivity gains depend on redeploying workers, not merely replacing them. Globally, the consultancy expects total employment demand to remain roughly flat, with possibly a slight negative net impact on jobs by 2030 under average AI adoption, but new AI-driven jobs could increase employment by about 5 percent if workers are retrained effectively.

For Chile, the 22 percent automation of working hours by 2030 via generative AI implies a major labour reallocation, particularly in service sectors such as food services and office support where McKinsey sees 30–35 percent automation potential. These sectors are politically sensitive, involving lower-income workers, and without robust reskilling and social-protection policies the political backlash could slow or distort automation adoption, undermining the theoretical GDP dividend.

The OECD stresses that small and medium enterprise digital adoption is central to Chile’s productivity agenda, warning that Latin America’s long-standing dual-economy problem—high-productivity exporters versus low-productivity domestic services—could widen unless SMEs adopt digital tools rather than being displaced by better-capitalised incumbents. For Chile, this is fundamentally a question about who captures the automation dividend: large mining and financial groups, or a broader business base.

What to watch next for Chile automation GDP growth

Several indicators will signal whether Chile is converting its automation potential into realised GDP gains. Investment flows into mining automation, data centre capacity and cloud infrastructure will provide early evidence of corporate commitment, while SME digital adoption rates will reveal whether productivity gains are spreading beyond the largest firms.

Labour market data will be equally important: the speed at which workers displaced from automatable roles find new employment in higher-productivity activities will determine whether the 2.0–2.5 point productivity uplift materialises or stalls. The government’s progress toward its R&D spending targets and the growth trajectory of the robotics and AI-services sectors will offer further clues about Chile’s positioning in the regional knowledge-services export race.

For international investors, Chile’s institutional stability, open-market orientation and digital infrastructure make it a comparatively safe bet for automation-linked capital allocation in Latin America. The interplay between copper prices, global AI investment cycles and domestic policy execution will ultimately determine whether the country captures the multi-point growth uplift that McKinsey’s modelling suggests is within reach.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much could automation add to Chile’s GDP growth by 2030?

McKinsey’s mid-point scenario suggests Chile could achieve 2.0–2.5 percentage points of additional annual productivity growth by 2030 from automation and AI. Combined with baseline growth of roughly 2–3 percent, this could push annual GDP growth into the 4–5 percent range under aggressive adoption scenarios, though no public McKinsey document uses the exact phrase “over 4 GDP points a year.”

Which sectors in Chile face the highest automation potential?

McKinsey’s sectoral analysis for Chile shows that roughly 35 percent of food-service hours and 30 percent of office-support hours could be automated, highlighting significant potential in services and white-collar work. Mining, agriculture and logistics are also key targets for AI-enabled robotics, with the domestic robotics market valued at around US$65 million in 2025 and concentrated in these industries.

What makes Chile well-positioned for automation-driven growth compared to other Latin American countries?

Chile benefits from strong institutional stability, an open-market economy, internet penetration exceeding 90 percent and a digital economy already representing about 22 percent of GDP. McKinsey ranks Chile alongside Argentina and Mexico as Latin America’s best-positioned economies for automation gains, while the country’s copper and lithium reserves make it both a supplier of metals powering AI hardware and a prospective power user of AI in mining and energy.