Government to require councils to make climate adaptation plans

Councils will have to come up with adaptation plans for communities at high risk from climate change hazards, under a proposed law change.

The Climate Change Response Amendment Bill, introduced to Parliament on Wednesday, will require councils to plan at least 30 years into the future, and spell out the likely cost.

However, the government has still not announced who should pay for adaptation, previously saying decisions about cost-sharing would be made in the next term of government.

Climate Change minister Simon Watts said for the first time, councils would be required by law to plan how high-risk communities in their area will prepare for the impacts of climate change.

"Some councils are already working well with their communities to adapt, but this is inconsistent across the country."

The current and future costs of climate change to communities and infrastructure are enormous.

Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) modelling published last year showed that 750,000 people were already exposed to a major flood risk, and that would rise to as the climate continued to warm.

ESNZ said critical services, including thousands of kilometres of roads and stormwater pipes, were also at risk.

An Infrastructure Commission report based on the ESNZ data and published last week said the average annual costs of infrastructure damage from flooding were already $471 million a year.

That could increase by between 43 and 53 percent by 2075 under various climate change scenarios, the commission said.

An individual event could cost far more: the damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary Day floods in 2023 has been estimated at a combined cost of $14.5 billion.

A Climate Change Commission report published in May said there was already "long-lasting hurt, grief and fear" from climate-driven severe weather events.

Just 3 percent of the money spent on hazard-related costs since 2010 had gone to reducing risk ahead of time, with the rest spent on post-recovery costs, the commission said.

Insurers and adaptation experts have also warned of the prospect of escalating insurance premiums and even withdrawal from some areas if risks are left unmitigated.

Plans would require cost estimates

Under the proposed law, regional councils would have to identify high priority areas through the new spatial planning process included in the RMA reforms.

City and district councils would then develop adaptation plans for any high priority communities within their area.

A fact sheet published by the Ministry for Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport says councils will be expected to focus first on places where people live, and start by looking at flood and coastal hazards.

The plans would have to spell out a programme of work, including the triggers or thresholds (such as a certain amount of sea level rise) for adaptation actions to go ahead.

They would also have to provide "high-level cost estimates" and explain how any costs would be funded and financed over time.

The government has not confirmed any funding mechanisms for local climate adaptation, despite mounting pressure from councils, insurers and the Climate Change Commission to do so.

Local Government NZ president Rehette Stoltz told the annual Insurance Council conference in June that councils were being asked to carry a national problem on local balance sheets and needed "durable co-funding".

An independent reference group set up by the Ministry for the Environment advised the government last year that funding should largely follow a 'beneficiary pays' model.

Central government should only invest in adaptation if it would protect Crown assets, "or where broader national benefits can be realised", the group's report said.

Minister warns against 'gold-plating' climate plans

Watts wrote to councils earlier this month warning them off "unnecessary gold-plating" when planning for climate risks.

He took specific issue with councils using the most extreme climate warming scenarios to develop their plans, saying such scenarios should only be used for "stress testing and contingency planning".

"The Government's expectation is clear: councils should plan for climate risks, but they must also plan for affordability."

The proposed law change would allow councils with existing adaptation plans to keep them, provided they met the required criteria.

Plans for the highest-priority areas would need to be made within five years of a regional spatial plan being adopted, with the remainder made within 10 years.

They would be reviewed every decade to make sure they were current.

The Bill also contains changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme, including providing a future option to add new forms of carbon removals into the scheme alongside forestry.

It also makes changes to the sequencing of how the government develops and monitors emissions budgets and plans, and will cut

the number of climate change commissioners from seven to five, not including the chair and deputy chair.