DDHQ forecasts Democratic House, 50-50 Senate in November

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Democrats are in position to win the House this fall while the Senate is on track to hold a 50-50 partisan split, according to a new forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) that paints a highly competitive picture of the midterm fight for control of Congress.

Just over 100 days out from the election, DDHQ forecasts Democrats clinching a 227-208 advantage in the House, while Republicans narrowly retain power with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote in a 50-50 Senate.

As it stands, there’s a 62 percent chance that Democrats win the lower chamber and a 57 percent probability that Republicans hold the upper chamber, according to DDHQ’s breakdown, amid a midterm landscape wracked by mid-decade redistricting and unprecedented developments in critical races.

The forecast shows Democrats have a 65 percent chance of winning at least one chamber this fall — including a 40 percent chance that they could go on to win full control on Capitol Hill. Republicans have a 35 percent chance of retaining full control.

The chance of Democrats and Republicans controlling rival chambers is “a very real outcome,” but predictions are in flux, said Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for DDHQ.

“If one party is doing maybe a little better than expected, or as well as expected in one [chamber], it could end up reverberating in the other chamber,” he continued, adding, “What is happening across the country in one place is likely to be at least somewhat correlated to what’s happening in another place.”

Democrats are hoping that off-year momentum bodes well for a blue wave this fall, and they stand to benefit from the historical trend of a sitting president’s party losing ground in a midterm cycle. But while the latest forecasts show a promising path forward, Democratic gains are far from a sure bet.

The party’s edge on a generic 2026 congressional ballot was as large as 7 percentage points in May, while the latest score shows a 4-point lead.

They’ve also benefited from President Trump’s poor approval numbers this year — but DDHQ’s trackers show the Republican’s rating has improved to about 42.5 percent after hovering around 40 percent since March.

“You have a Democratic-leaning electoral environment, but one that is not as Democratic-leaning as it was a little while ago. And so the question now is: Is that going to continue as we get into the fall, or is it going to bounce a bit back toward Democrats? Could it even improve more for Republicans?” said Skelley.

“Democrats’ lead, with a 4-point lead on a generic ballot, is enough for them to win the House. But if it gets smaller than that, you could end up in a situation where it’s where the House is more of a true coin flip.”

Democrats need to net three seats to take the House, where Republicans currently hold a 220-215 functional majority, and they’re hoping that energy from a string of wins last year and high-profile primaries this cycle sustains this fall.

After a series of tumultuous mid-decade redistricting changes across the country, though, the party doesn’t have a high ceiling of potential House gains.

Republicans stand to net five seats from their redistricting efforts, with 11 forecasted GOP flips and six forecasted Democratic flips.

“You could think about Republicans as having 225 seats instead of 220 based on what our forecast is showing, because in our forecast right now, Republicans gain about five seats from the states that redistricted, compared to where they are currently. So that, of course, would mean that Democrats don’t need just three seats to get the bare minimum, 218 to 217, they need eight seats,” Skelley said.

“So it is a little higher wall, and does speak, I think, to why redistricting has helped Republicans’ chances overall and lowered the ceiling of what Democrats might hope for.”

House races to watch include toss-ups in Florida’s 14th Congressional District, where Rep. Kathy Castor (D) is seeking to hold on to her seat after GOP-led redistricting, and in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, where Rep. Don Davis (D) is in for a 2024 rematch against GOP rival Laurie Buckhout.

In the Senate, where Republicans boast a 53-47 majority, Democrats need to net four seats for a flip this fall. But though Republicans are favored to hold onto the upper chamber, they have to win at least two seats in key GOP states where Democrats are eyeing competitive pickup opportunities — such as Alaska, Texas and North Carolina.

Republicans have just a 28 percent probability of winning in North Carolina, according to DDHQ, as Democrat Roy Cooper, a former governor, battles Republican Michael Whatley for an open seat in the state that Trump narrowly won in 2024.

Democrats also have a 44 percent chance of winning in Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in the state that went for Trump by double digits.

The Senate race in Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is squaring off against state Attorney General Ken Paxton after a bruising Republican primary that ousted incumbent Sen. Jon Cornyn (R), is among several major toss ups, per DDHQ — as is the contest in Maine, where controversial Graham Platner’s exit left Democrats scrambling for a new nominee to take on incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R).

If Republicans win in Michigan, where a Rep. Haley Stevens (D) and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are duking it out in a competitive Democratic primary to take on presumptive GOP nominee Rep. Mike Rogers, Democrats jump to an 86 percent chance of winning the Senate, according to DDHQ.

“The thing to remember with any of this is that these results are going to be pretty correlated. If Democrats are doing better than expected, and they are in a position to win both Ohio and Iowa, that probably means that they are winning states like Maine and North Carolina, and maybe picking off another one of these states,” Skelley said.

“Conversely, if Republicans are winning in a place like Maine, then they may very well be holding all of these red leaning states and just losing a place like North Carolina, or maybe they’re flipping Michigan,” he added.

The forecasts are based on a series of factors, including generic ballot data, fundraising, prediction markets, polling averages and the historical partisanship of a given state or district. The models update at least daily.

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Dan Sullivan

Don Davis

Kathy Castor

Mary Peltola

Michael Whatley

Roy Cooper

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