Oil supply recovery to take 2-3 months even if Strait of Hormuz reopens — IMF

WASHINGTON, July 15. /TASS/. Restoring normal oil supply volumes from the Middle East will take two to three months even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is fully restored, according to a new analytical note published on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) blog.

"Industry estimates suggest it will take two to three months before a significant share of oil flows can resume following a full reopening of the waterway. A longer-term concern is that prolonged production halts could cause permanent output losses, especially where financing to restart wells is scarce," the report said.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force, announced a large-scale retaliatory operation. In addition, Iranian authorities decided to close the Strait of Hormuz to vessels linked to the United States, Israel, and countries that supported what Tehran described as aggression against the Islamic Republic. Roughly 25% of global oil trade and about 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate ceasefire on all fronts. However, on the night of July 7-8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing Tehran of violating the terms of the agreement. US President Donald Trump said on July 10 that the ceasefire with Iran was no longer in effect, although the negotiation process was underway.