Kenya's 'political gangs' fuel election fears

For Brian Ongore, a resident of Kenya's capital, Nairobi, seeing groups of young men in public has become a source of anxiety rather than an ordinary part of city life.

"Whenever you see a group of youths, you're just in panic because you never know what will happen to you next," Ongore told DW. "Everybody is in constant panic. The general feeling of safety has gone down. It's like you're living in the jungle."

His concerns echo growing fears among many Kenyans, particularly since recent violent disruptions at opposition-linked gatherings in the towns of Kisumu and Nyahururu.

Increasingly, so-called "goons" are being hired, dozens or even hundreds at a time, to intimidate rivals or disrupt public events ahead of the elections, which are scheduled to take place on August 10, 2027. In a recent report, the French news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP) noted that police often turn a blind eye.

In June, a civil society and church forum at Nairobi's All Saints Cathedral was disrupted during discussions on public finance management.

According to a statement published on Monday by Amnesty International Kenya, the "goons publicly confessed to having been sent by some powerful government officials to carry out the heinous attack."

AFP reported that "Kenyan politicians are hiring armed thugs for as little as $4 per day as poverty and ruthless political competition threaten to unleash uncontrollable violence ahead of elections next year."

Nairobi businesswoman Priscilla Njoroge urged young Kenyans not to allow themselves to be exploited for political violence. "I would like to tell the goons who are being misused not to play with the peace we have because violence destroys everything. The losses are much greater," she told DW.

University student Paul Mwai also questioned the response of the security agencies, while speaking to DW. "Yesterday police were seen protecting the goons. I have not seen even a single goon being dealt with decisively by the same government that keeps issuing threats," he said.

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Ruto responds

Speaking at the funeral of Zipporah Kosgey, the wife of veteran Kenyan politician Henry Kosgey last month, Kenyan President William Ruto acknowledged the growing presence of political gangs and warned that violence could undermine the democratic process.

"These goons are innocent children who are being used by bankrupt politicians. They go around causing chaos, assaulting people and causing destruction," Ruto said. "All the goons should be dealt with firmly, and those who are paying these young people should also be tracked down."

Security analyst Byron Adera said the use of political gangs was not new but appeared to be becoming more organized.

"Political enterprise is propped up by goonism, which is really paid thugs being used for political power," he told DW, adding that unemployed young people were particularly vulnerable to being recruited by gangs.

Adera warned that political violence and perceptions of partisan policing could undermine democracy.

"You have to ask yourself whether, in the end, it is the will of the people or the will of politicians behind the goons," he said.

Political economist Sheila Owigo Olang, a governance analyst, agreed that the recent wave of attacks appeared to be more organized than in previous election cycles, and that there seemed to be impunity.

"The faces of the goons look like they have very strong sponsors because there are no consequences," she told DW.

Olang added that attacks had spread beyond campaign rallies to churches even and other institutions. She said they had particularly created fear among women seeking political office.

"Women are the biggest voting demographic and when they stay home it leads to illegitimate outcomes," she said, adding that she had personally experienced political intimidation. "I have been a victim."

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Lessons from 2007

More than 1,000 people were killed following the disputed 2007 presidential election before a power-sharing agreement brokered by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan helped end the crisis.

The Kofi Annan Foundation warned in its latest Electoral Vulnerability Index that Kenya faced a high risk of election-related violence ahead of the 2027 polls, citing political tensions, economic hardship and public mistrust in institutions among the key drivers.

As East Africa's largest economy and one of the region's most influential democracies, Kenya's elections are always closely watched across the continent.

Analysts say that preventing political violence is essential to ensuring political competition is decided by voters rather than intimidation.

Whether that happens, Adera said, may determine whether next year's election in Kenya reflects "the will of the people" or "the will of politicians behind the goons."

Andrew Wasike contributed to this report

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Edited by: Keith Walker