Government ‘obsessed with immigration’, neglecting poverty – ISCTE report

Portugal’s centre-right government has become “obsessed with immigration” while failing to make meaningful progress in tackling poverty, according to a new State of the Nation report by researchers at ISCTE‘s Institute for Public and Social Policies (IPPS).

The report, “State of the Nation and Public Policies 2026” (coming out hours before the State of the Nation debate in parliament this afternoon), argues that many of the PSD/CDS government’s policies are based on “information deficits” rather than evidence, and reflect the challenges of governing with a fragmented parliament.

Coordinated by former Socialist culture minister Pedro Adão e Silva, the publication brings together 16 academic essays examining key areas of public policy.

Speaking to Lusa news agency, Adão e Silva said the government faces two defining constraints: a highly fragmented parliament and the absence of a stable governing partner – forcing it to seek support alternately from CHEGA and the PS Socialist Party (both of which have their own axes to grind).

Adão e Silva argued that governments in Portugal increasingly replace existing policies without properly evaluating whether previous measures have worked – describing the trend as particularly evident under the current administration.

As an example, he cited education reforms introduced before officials had established how many pupils were without teachers during the school year. He also pointed to the recent crisis over digital marking of national secondary school exams as another example of policymaking without adequate preparation or reliable data.

The report’s immigration chapter is among its most critical, accusing the government of pursuing policy driven more by politics than evidence.

Researchers Cláudia Ferreira, José Leitão and Rui Pena Pires argue that while immigration is widely perceived as being “out of control”, international experience shows migration flows are determined primarily by economic conditions rather than whether governments adopt “open-door” or restrictive policies.

“The recent changes to Portugal’s immigration law respond more to an obsession with immigration than to building solutions for irregular migration,” the authors write, adding that the rise of the far-right in Portugal has influenced both the government’s rhetoric, and the scale of legislative changes.

They argue for a new visa policy and stronger labour market regulation, warning that without legal migration channels, irregular migration risks becoming increasingly dependent on people-smuggling networks.

The report also questions the government’s anti-poverty strategy. Researchers Amílcar Moreira and Armindo Silva conclude that increasing both the value of the Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly (CSI) and the number of recipients between 2023 and 2024 had no significant impact on reducing poverty.

Instead of raising the benefit to match the national minimum wage, as proposed by the government, they argue that linking it to Portugal’s poverty threshold would be more effective while placing less pressure on public finances.

On economic policy, ISCTE economist Sérgio Lagoa predicts the government’s planned reduction in corporate tax (IRC) will have only a limited effect on investment and economic growth, despite costing an estimated €300 million in lost tax revenue this year.

The report also raises concerns about public broadcasting, warning that RTP faces financial sustainability problems while state news agency Lusa could become (even) more vulnerable to political interference following recent governance reforms.

In defence policy, researcher Pedro Seabra notes that although Portugal reported NATO defence spending equivalent to 2% of GDP, around €2 billion of the €6.1 billion total came from spending outside the armed forces, made possible under broader NATO accounting rules.

He also warns that any future increase in defence spending to 3% of GDP could place additional pressure on Portugal’s public finances and force difficult trade-offs with spending on health, education and social welfare.

Now, the first observation that must come as a footnote to this report is that ISCTE has been seen as the kind of ‘university arm of the Socialist Party’, and this study has been coordinated by a former Socialist minister. This is not an observation designed to question the study’s findings, just to provide context.

Source material: CNN Portugal/ Executive Digest/ LUSA