As Putin loses confidence in his military, Ukraine presses harder

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Once again, Russian President Vladimir Putin, under growing pressure in Ukraine, is resorting to nuclear bluffing. On Wednesday, his aide Nikolai Pastrushev announced that Russia’s “naval nuclear forces are on full alert.”

Although it projects defiance, it also reveals that Putin is losing confidence in his military. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is making good on his “40-day influence operation … against the aggressor state, aimed at compelling it to end the war.”

Zelensky’s decision to reinforce his nation’s recent military success is paying off and crippling Russia. Acting on the advice of Maj. Gen. Yevhen Khmara, Zelensky greenlit what Ukraine is jokingly calling “a long-range and mid-range sanctions plan.” It entails deep strikes within the Russian interior — or as Zelensky likes to call them, “Ukrainian sanctions” — that continue unabated. They are putting significant pressure on Russia’s economy and the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war.

This has resulted in hardships unprecedented for this generation’s Russian elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Videos posted on social media capture their displeasure. And for Russians caught in what has become known as the “Magyar Triangle” — an area that encompasses the Russian-occupied southern territories of Ukraine, Crimea, and the Sea of Azov — they are feeling the wrath of Ukraine’s unrelenting drone warfare, too.

Ukraine’s 414th Separate Brigade Unmanned Systems Forces, commanded by Maj. Robert Brovdi, is making Crimea impossible for Russia to hold. In Brovdi’s words, “We are creating conditions that make [Russia’s] presence there untenable, without losing a single Ukrainian soldier’s life. We’re doing this entirely remotely.”

He is wreaking havoc on Russian shipping, forcing Russia to close some maritime routes and further isolating Crimea by denying it resupply from the Sea of Azov.

On Monday, Brovdi posted on Telegram that the operation, which hit 105 vessels between July 6 and July 13, will continue. “The Crimea peninsula’s transshipment infrastructure is being struck every night, traffic through the Kerch Strait has been halted, and unloading operations have been reduced to a minimum.”

The Ukrainians are targeting logistics — anything that allows Russia to transport personnel or move ammunition, military equipment, weapons or troops. This includes tankers used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products circumventing international sanctions, ferries used to support military logistics and cargo transportation for Russian ground forces, and dry cargo ships and tugboats used to transport military equipment and supplies.

But cutting off supplies is just one outcome Brovdi is pursuing. He is also targeting the electrical grid, striking nine power substations across Crimea and other territories, as well as the energy bridge that links the peninsula to power generated in Russia.

And then there is the Kerch Strait Bridge, Brovdi’s final objective. He continues to set conditions for its eventual destruction by targeting Russian air defense assets whose mission is to defend it. They have recently destroyed an S-400 Triumf launcher, a Tor air defense system, and two radar complexes.

For now, the bridge stands. As Brovdi stated, “We’re cutting off the access routes — not the exit routes. We’re not touching the Kerch Bridge. Let them get out through it. Let those millions leave through that little bridge back to their Russia.”

But that is just the current fight. Putin and his generals have additional problems to consider.

Ukraine’s ability to manufacture and produce its own weapons — cruise missiles and drones — has changed the trajectory of the war, providing Kyiv the ability to strike deep into the Russian interior.

Now the U.S. and France are providing licenses to Ukraine to produce additional weapon systems. At last week’s NATO summit, President Trump pledged to give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot air-defense systems — specifically interceptor missiles. And French President Emmanuel Macron said he will authorize Ukraine to produce French-designed cruise missiles, glide bombs, and air defense interceptors. France will also transfer radar systems and next-generation air defense systems to Ukraine, in addition to 16 fighter jets by 2028.

On Monday, Ukraine and nine European countries agreed to establish an anti-ballistic missile coalition to bolster Europe’s missile defense capabilities and support Ukraine in developing its Freya air defense project.

Equally significantly, Trump said on Tuesday that he would support the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026. Drafted by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), it would authorize the president to impose secondary sanctions against countries that purchase Russian oil, gas, or uranium.

The walls are closing in on Putin, yet he remains defiant. The question is, how much longer will Russia’s elite tolerate the inconveniences Zelensky is imposing on them?

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the US European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.

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