Why did Manchester United pay Chelsea £48m for Andrey Santos?

Andrey Santos moving from Chelsea to Manchester United was not on our summer transfer window bingo card, but the Brazilian has become Michael Carrick’s first signing. United desperately needed reinforcements in midfield, especially after Casemiro’s departure and Manuel Ugarte’s long-term injury, so deals for Santos and Youri Tielemans will be welcomed by fans.

Tielemans looks like particularly good business – he captains Belgium, has made 244 appearances in the Premier League and was available for £35m – but Santos is a more curious choice. He was often a backup player for Chelsea last season as they finished seven places and 19 points behind United; he is not the finished article, and played for one of United’s rivals. Since Alex Ferguson retired 13 years ago, United had only signed four players from their “big six” rivals: Juan Mata, Nemanja Matic, Mason Mount (all Chelsea) and Alexis Sánchez (Arsenal).

Santos feels like a signing out of left-field, but he could prove a shrewd acquisition – even at £48m. Many United fans will hope he complements Kobbie Mainoo rather than putting his role in doubt. Ruben Amorim overlooked the homegrown player time and time again but, under Carrick, only Bruno Fernandes (1,679) and Luke Shaw (1,589) played more minutes than Mainoo (1,503) among United’s outfield players.

Santos may even be a more well-rounded midfielder. For all his quality on the ball, Mainoo has defensive and physical weaknesses. Santos appears to be more switched on defensively and has a greater combative streak, which should bring the midfield balance if they are paired together. Santos’s key strength, though, is his distribution. He is a confident and effective passer, capable of dictating play with short, sharp passes or getting his team on the front foot with more adventurous through balls. Santos is tidy in tight spaces and could add a greater degree of intricacy to United’s buildup play.

His ability to play difficult passes is where he adds most value. Admittedly, Santos’s proportion of passes played forward (25.7%) is not extraordinary, but he has a good understanding of when to shift the ball to attack. In fact, of the midfielders who played at least 900 minutes in the Premier League last season, only three had a better pass completion rate when it came to forward passes than Santos (80%).

Santos’s completion rate with passes into the final third (82.2%) is notably high as well, ranking sixth among Premier League midfielders last season. His line-breaking passes are also impressive; he averaged 8.1 per 90 minutes last season, putting him behind just 11 midfielders in the division. Of those above him, Elliot Anderson (10.2) was the only other player aged 23 or under. Santos came in just behind Bruno Guimarães (8.6) and Martin Ødegaard (8.2). It’s also worth pointing out that 14.2% of his open-play passes broke at least one line in the opposition’s setup, putting him joint 15th out of 91 midfielders to play more than 900 minutes.

The Brazilian is incisive from deep positions in midfield, which was an underrated facet of Casemiro’s game. While more renowned for his destructive work, Casemiro was capable of playing killer balls and early passes over defences. United fans will hope Santos takes over where his compatriot left off.

Like Mainoo, Santos also likes to exchange quick, short passes with teammates, which can be useful in getting around a press or turning up the tempo. He averaged an impressive 1.8 successful layoffs per 90 minutes in the league last season, which shows his effectiveness as a link-up player, as well as his tidiness in tight spaces. He completed 89.9% of his passes – a figure only seven regular midfielders could better.

When it comes to playing in deep areas, where losing possession can be critical, he may be more reliable than Casemiro. Santos completed 86.5% of his passes when under pressure last season, putting him 21st out of 94 regular midfielders (900+ minutes) in the Premier League; Casemiro, on the other hand, ranked 67th in that group with a completion rate of 80.4%. Casemiro’s general pass completion rate of 81.3% was also some way behind Santos’s. Casemiro did play a far greater proportion of his passes forward (35.7% to 25.7%), but the evidence suggests Santos will help United elude opponents’ press.

Santos will also be expected to provide United with some steel out of possession. He is not the most physically imposing player and does not zip about the pitch with great intensity, with his 53.7 pressures per 90 putting him behind 63 other midfielders last season. United probably still need to sign a powerful runner to ease worries about being caught in transition, but he tends to win his individual battles on the pitch: only three regular midfielders in the league last season had a better win rate in duels (62%).

Tielemans is 29 so very much a player for the present but Santos, just 22, has plenty of potential to develop. After returning from a promising loan spell at Strasbourg – where he thrived in a box-to-box role and was voted in the Ligue 1 team of the season for 2024-25 – dislodging Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo in the Chelsea midfield was always going to be tough. He may not have been the player United fans expected to sign this season, but he looks like a smart, considered acquisition who may prove something of a coup for Carrick.

This is an article by Opta Analyst