Can Malaysia’s PAS deliver the votes in Negeri Sembilan despite Johor wipeout?

Malaysia’s largest Islamist party was wiped out in Johor’s state election last weekend, but PAS is now trying to turn that defeat into bargaining power.

Its argument is that supporters who had no PAS candidate to vote for helped deliver a landslide victory to Barisan Nasional (BN), the coalition led by Umno, its long-time rival for Malay-Muslim voters.

The two parties have spent years competing for influence among Malaysia’s Malay majority, but they have also explored cooperation when it serves their political interests.

Fresh constituency-level data, however, raises doubts about whether PAS can reliably transfer its support to Umno when the two parties choose coordination over competition.

That question now matters in neighbouring Negeri Sembilan, where voters go to the polls on August 1 and BN has left 11 of the state’s 36 seats open for potential partners.

The opening became more pointed after BN announced on Wednesday night that it would contest only 25 constituencies, fuelling speculation that the remaining seats could be used to make room for PAS or other Malay-Muslim allies.