RNZ poll: More than half of those surveyed could be persuaded to vote for a different party

More than half of those surveyed in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll could be persuaded to vote for a different party, and it is Opportunity which could benefit most.

The latest poll, conducted from 2 to 9 July, delivered the coalition parties 61 seats between them - the narrowest majority in a 120-seat Parliament.

That's despite National slumping to just 28.7 percent, its lowest level of support since Christopher Luxon became leader.

New Zealand First and ACT picked up 11.5 percent and 7.8 percent respectively, while Opportunity was knocking on Parliament's door with 4.7 percent - just shy of the five percent threshold.

Labour had the largest share of the vote with 34 percent, while the Greens were on 10.3 percent, and Te Pāti Māori collected 2.3 percent.

But new data taking a deeper look at the electorate's voting considerations shows how easily a party's share of the vote could change as scrutiny of policies intensifies in the lead-up to the election.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll asked respondents not only which party they would vote for today, but which other parties they might seriously consider voting for in the upcoming election.

Of the 1000 respondents, 54.4 percent indicated they would seriously consider voting for more than one party.

When respondents were asked their party vote if an election was held today, they were also asked if that was the only party they would consider voting for.

Those responses generated a floor for each political party in terms of its committed vote at this point in the election cycle - Labour 15.7, National 12.8, Greens 4.1, New Zealand First 4, Act 2.7, Te Pāti Māori 1.2, and Opportunity 1.2 percent.

Respondents were then asked which other parties they might seriously consider voting for.

The poll then combined the totals (recalculated over 100 percent) of those respondents who might seriously consider voting for another party in the upcoming election with those who have locked-in a preference

Broken down by party, Labour received 28.7, National 24.3, New Zealand First 13.8, Greens 13.1, Act 10.5, Opportunity 6, and Te Pāti Māori 3.6 percent.

Taking respondents' serious considerations into account gave a greater share of the vote to all of the parties except Labour and National, which received a -5.3 and -4.4 percentage point difference compared to its original party polling if an election was held today.

Most strikingly it bumped Opportunity over the five percent threshold and put it in a true kingmaker position as the party capable of deciding the next government.

On these numbers, without Opportunity support the centre-right bloc would only have 48.6 percent of the vote and the centre-left bloc 45.4 percent, which is not enough to form a government.

The major parties are increasingly needing to rely on minor parties to form a government as the combined Labour-National vote shrinks - a trend being seen in politics globally.

In this latest poll, the combined major party vote was 62.7 percent - down from 66.4 percent in March and 66.9 in January.