Election handicapper shifts California House seat to Dems, Maine seat to GOP

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A leading election handicapper shifted its outcome projections for two U.S. House races in Maine and California on Thursday, as the Democratic and Republican parties wrestle to secure control of the lower chamber of Congress this midterm cycle.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics changed its prediction for California’s 22nd Congressional District race from a toss-up to leaning in favor of Democrats. Additionally, the handicapper shifted Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from leaning Republican to likely Republican.

The shifted prediction in the California race could spell trouble for incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao’s reelection chances. Valadao has served in the federal legislature since 2012, and he is challenged by progressive Democrat Randy Villegas in the race.

In the state’s primary election on June 9, Valadao received 40.74 percent of the vote and Villegas garnered 32.36 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Meanwhile, the open House race in Maine to fill retiring Rep. Jared Golden’s (D) seat is contested between Republican nominee Paul LePage and Democratic nominee Matthew Dunlap. Crystal Ball’s updated prediction on Thursday shifts the race more in LePage’s favor.

President Trump won the district’s one electoral vote in his 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential runs, and the district has leaned increasingly in favor of GOP candidates in recent years.

Generic polling for this year’s House elections favor Democratic candidates. A recent poll from Cygnal Political found that 50 percent of likely general election voters across the country plan to support Democrats at the ballot box this November, while 44 percent said they would support Republicans.

Additionally, Decision Desk HQ forecast this week that the Democratic Party is in a position to win back control of the lower chamber of Congress this fall with an advantage of 226-209. There is a 61 percent chance that Democrats win control over the House, while Republicans have a 57 percent chance of holding their majority in the Senate, according to Decision Desk HQ’s projection.

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David Valadao

Donald Trump

Jared Golden

Larry Sabato

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