Press review: Trump weighs Iran op expansion and EU rules out fast-track Ukraine accession

MOSCOW, July 17. /TASS/. Donald Trump is reportedly considering broadening the US military operation in Iran to tighten control over the Strait of Hormuz; a proposed US sanctions bill would grant the president broad powers to target buyers of Russian oil and gas; and Russia’s IT sector continues to expand, led by software development, AI, and cybersecurity. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Izvestia: Trump reportedly weighs broadening military operation in Iran to tighten control over Strait of Hormuz

Control of the Strait of Hormuz is emerging as the primary objective of the US campaign in Iran. According to The Wall Street Journal, following a meeting with his advisers, US President Donald Trump is increasingly leaning toward expanding the bombing campaign and even deploying ground forces to seize the islands of Khark, Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb. Washington reportedly views these territories as the key to the world’s vital oil artery, through which one-fifth of global crude oil exports pass, Izvestia writes.

In addition, the administration is discussing bombing the Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex using heavy bunker-buster bombs to prevent the establishment of an operational nuclear facility there.

Further airstrikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure are also under consideration in response to the collapse of the recent peace agreements and the ongoing attacks on commercial shipping.

Alexander Ermakov, junior research fellow at the Center for International Security of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia that the United States and Iran have effectively returned to the situation that existed before the agreement.

"The Americans have likewise returned to discussing the same options that were on the table back then. Expanding the air campaign and striking additional targets within Iran’s military-industrial and nuclear complexes can be considered almost certain steps. On the other hand, this will not achieve much," the expert said.

Trump has long sought to intimidate Tehran with the prospect of seizing the islands, including those hosting oil infrastructure, he added.

"But this also carries risks for him, as such an operation would clearly entail significant losses, and the American public, which is already viewing the situation skeptically, may not support it. Moreover, it would not produce a decisive turning point in the war, as it would not undermine Iran’s ability to maintain its blockade and continue its resistance," the expert said.

At the same time, the analyst did not completely rule out the possibility of US raids on the islands, although without any attempt to establish a permanent presence there in order to avoid staying under missile and drone fire.

"So, in my view, the most likely scenario is the continuation of airstrikes and economic pressure through the blockade. Airstrikes could also be extended to include civilian economic infrastructure," he concluded.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Proposed US sanctions bill could boost Washington’s leverage over buyers of Russian oil

The Sanctioning Russia Act, a bill proposing new sanctions targeting Russian energy exports, is currently being reviewed in the US Congress. The legislation would authorize the US president to unilaterally impose tariffs of up to 100% on any goods imported from the five largest purchasers of Russian oil and gas. The experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe the bill is likely to be adopted and used primarily as a negotiating tool to pressure China and India rather than directly limit Russian oil exports.

The bill is often described as a softened or compromise version because its original draft proposed tariffs of 500%, the newspaper writes. In practice, however, once tariffs exceed 50%, the exact rate becomes largely irrelevant, as such duties effectively serve as prohibitive trade barriers, preventing affected goods from accessing the US market, which remains the largest export destination for products from many Asian and European countries.

According to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the key aspect of the legislation is that it would effectively grant the US president unilateral authority to initiate trade wars. In this context, Russia would serve not only as the target of sanctions but also as a means of exerting pressure on third countries.

Konstantin Simonov, Director General of the National Energy Security Fund, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the bill is highly likely to be passed. He noted that the legislation is unusual because it does not itself impose sanctions but instead grants the US president the authority to apply them at any time. In his view, there is little doubt that this authority would be used, at the very least as a tool of psychological pressure to strengthen Washington’s negotiating position with countries such as India and China.

Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government, expressed a similar view. He noted that the bill was introduced on a bipartisan basis by both Democrats and Republicans and is backed by the Trump administration, making its approval likely. According to Andrianov, the legislation is intended not to punish Russia but to provide the United States with additional leverage over Beijing and New Delhi.

According to Daniil Tyunya, Chief Executive Officer of DA-Consulting, the principal risk for Russia lies not in losing the Indian or Chinese markets but in the weakening of its negotiating position. While a sharp decline in physical purchase volumes is unlikely, pressure on the price of Russian crude is expected to grow.

Izvestia: EU rules out fast-track membership for Ukraine, keeps accession tied to standard process

The issue of accelerating Ukraine’s integration into the European Union is no longer being considered, Pekka Toveri, head of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with Ukraine, told Izvestia. Germany and France had previously proposed allowing Ukraine to join the bloc through a partial accession process that would bypass existing procedures. At the same time, Toveri said the EU plans to open all negotiating clusters with Ukraine by the end of the year. Experts believe economic issues and corruption will present the greatest challenges, although a member of the German parliament believes the EU will seek to bring Ukraine up to the bloc’s standards.

"I don’t think the fast-track option is on the agenda. The process is based on merit, which naturally could move quite quickly if Ukraine is able to implement the necessary reforms rapidly," Toveri told Izvestia.

The European Commission continues to avoid announcing any specific date for Ukraine’s accession. Kiev’s membership would require unanimous approval from all EU member states, and there is currently no consensus on the issue, the newspaper writes. The strongest supporters of Ukraine’s European integration remain the Baltic states and the Nordic countries.

The two negotiating clusters opened by the European Union are political in nature because there are currently few conditions for meaningful practical work in the economic sphere, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Egor Sergeyev told Izvestia.

Steffen Kotre, a member of the German Bundestag from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, also told Izvestia that Ukraine’s system of public administration and its level of corruption do not correspond to the requirements for EU membership.

Russia has never objected to Ukraine joining the European Union, viewing it as Kiev’s sovereign decision, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated. At the same time, Russia opposes the European Union’s transformation into a military bloc, a direction it believes the organization is increasingly pursuing.

Vedomosti: US tariffs on Brazil could spark new trade dispute

The United States has announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on most imports from Brazil. According to a statement from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the new tariffs could take effect on July 22. As Reuters noted, Brazil could become the first country targeted under the Donald Trump administration’s new tariff strategy based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes investigations into alleged unfair trade practices. The experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe the proposed tariffs are driven by both political and strategic considerations, but their practical impact may be limited as the United States remains strongly dependent on Brazilian imports.

The higher tariffs will not apply to a limited range of Brazilian exports to the United States that could disrupt manufacturing supply chains or are not produced domestically in the United States, the USTR said. These exemptions include certain raw materials, rare earth elements, pharmaceuticals, beef, coffee, orange juice, aircraft and aircraft parts, as well as energy products.

Pavel Koshkin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, believes the United States is imposing the higher tariffs on Brazil largely for ideological reasons. He noted that the Latin American country is currently governed by center-left and progressive political forces that are unfriendly toward Trump.

Viktor Kheyfets, Editor-in-Chief of the Latin America journal, told Vedomosti that the tariffs are also a response to Brazil’s policy of gradually decreasing the role of the US dollar in its international settlements.

Koshkin also described the tariffs as a continuation of the US administration’s broader tariff policy. "Driven by emotion, Trump may at times fail to appreciate the importance of Brazilian goods for American consumers. Moreover, the Republican majority on the Supreme Court does not necessarily mean it will side with the president in tariff disputes. Therefore, I would not rule out continued back-and-forth between the administration and the judiciary," he told the newspaper.

Kheyfets added that Washington would be unable to wage a unilateral trade confrontation with Brazil because US consumers remain heavily dependent on Brazilian food products and other goods.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russian IT market continues to expand across core segments

Russian software developers continue to increase both sales and investment, while employment in the country’s IT sector is approaching 1.2 mln people. Experts told Rossiyskaya Gazeta the fastest-growing areas include projects related to neural networks, cybersecurity, and software development.

According to the Higher School of Economics, software developers made the largest contribution to the IT sector’s growth, accounting for 68% of total output, or 860 bln rubles ($10.9 bln), representing a 1.5-fold increase compared with Q1 2025. Companies engaged in data processing and information hosting accounted for 27% of the market and increased their sales by 17.4%.

The fastest-growing segments today are those related to import-independent infrastructure, Russian system and application software, and information security. Oleg Aksyonov, Technical Director of LANIT-Integration, said the main driver, in addition to replacing foreign solutions, is the need among large companies and government customers for stable, manageable, and scalable IT environments.

"It is still too early to say that import substitution has been completed across the IT sector as a whole, because the situation differs across its various segments," Aksyonov explained.

At the same time, Russia is actively launching projects in the fields of AI and cybersecurity, while digitalization continues to expand across virtually all processes in both the public and private sectors. At the same time, competition among Russian technology vendors is becoming stronger.

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