Mexico’s Airport Giant GAP Cuts Its 2026 Traffic Forecast After a Weak Quarter

GAP cut its 2026 traffic forecast to between minus 3% and flat, down from 2–5% growth, after second-quarter passengers fell 5.6% and revenue missed analyst expectations.

3 Key Points

—Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), operator of Guadalajara, Tijuana and twelve other airports, cut its 2026 traffic forecast to between minus 3% and flat — its previous guidance promised 2–5% growth — after second-quarter passengers fell 5.6% to just under 15 million; the stock dropped more than 5% and led the Mexican bolsa’s losers.

—The quarter itself was a split screen: revenue of Ps.11,290 million ($646M) rose 3.7% but missed the roughly Ps.12,360 million ($707M) analysts expected, while EBITDA still climbed 8.4% to Ps.5,965 million ($341M) and comprehensive income rose 9.6% to Ps.2,450 million ($140M) — costs flexed faster than traffic fell.

—Three headwinds hit at once — a peso 10.9% stronger against the dollar, an 18.3% revenue drop at its Jamaican airports, and collapsing international traffic at beach destinations (Puerto Vallarta international down 27.1%) — just as the CBX Tijuana–San Diego bridge terminal entered the accounts, adding 89.7 million new shares and Ps.30,803 million ($1.76B) of goodwill.

GAP Guidance Cut Q2 2026: What Happened

01What Happened

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (NYSE: PAC; BMV: GAP) runs 14 airports: twelve across Mexico’s Pacific corridor — Guadalajara and Tijuana above all, plus Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta and the Bájio — and two in Jamaica, Montego Bay and Kingston. Since May it also owns Cross Border Xpress (CBX), the bridge terminal that lets passengers walk between San Diego and Tijuana’s runway.

It is one of the three big listed Mexican airport groups, alongside ASUR in the southeast and OMA in the north.

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The company published second-quarter results on July 14, via GlobeNewswire, and the guidance revision inside them was the loudest news of Mexico’s earnings week: full-year passenger traffic is now expected between minus 3% and flat, where the previous guidance saw growth of 2% to 5%. From growth to shrinkage in one revision. The stock fell more than 5.6% and led the losers on the Mexican exchange; several banks trimmed targets within a day.

Company Intelligence · Market Data

Ticker / listingPAC (NYSE ADS) · GAP (BMV)

ADS price (Jul 16 close)$225.96

52-week range$206.91 – $300.41

Trailing P/E21.4x

Forward P/E17.4x

Dividend yield3.9%

Wall Street target (consensus)$267.91

EPS per ADS (TTM)$10.52

Shares outstanding (post-CBX)595,018,195

Analyst ratings2 Strong Buy · 2 Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Strong Sell

Source: EODHD market data, July 16, 2026.

The consensus target of $267.91 still sits 19% above the ADS price, but the ratings split — four holds and one strong sell against four buys — is unusually wide for a Mexican airport stock, and it captures the real debate: whether this year’s traffic slump is a cyclical air pocket or the end of the post-pandemic super-cycle in Mexican aviation.

Company Intelligence · Company Profile

CompanyGrupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Sector / industryIndustrials · Airports & Air Services

HeadquartersGuadalajara, Mexico

Employees~3,815

CEORaúl Revuelta Musalem

CFOSaúl Villarreal García

Network14 airports (12 Mexico, 2 Jamaica) + CBX

NYSE listingSince February 2006

Source: EODHD company fundamentals, July 16, 2026.

Key Drivers Behind the GAP Guidance Cut

02Key Drivers

Three forces converged on the quarter. First, the peso: 10.9% stronger against the dollar year over year. GAP collects a large share of its tariffs in dollar-linked terms and reports in pesos, so a strong peso shrinks the top line in translation before a single passenger is lost.

Second, the beach slump. International traffic to Mexico’s Pacific resorts fell hard — Puerto Vallarta’s international passengers dropped 27.1%, Los Cabos’ fell 11.4% — while the big city hubs held up far better.

Guadalajara actually grew, domestic traffic up 3.1% and international up 8.1%. The network’s problem is concentrated where American tourists used to be.

Third, Jamaica: revenue at Montego Bay and Kingston fell 18.3%. The Caribbean leg, bought as diversification, moved in the same direction as the Mexican beaches this quarter — diversification that did not diversify.

Airport (Q2 2026)

Domestic pax

International pax

Reading

Guadalajara

+3.1%

+8.1%

the bright spot

Tijuana

−7.7%

−9.7%

border softness

Los Cabos

−2.2%

−11.4%

resort slump

Puerto Vallarta

−6.2%

−27.1%

worst in network

Mexicali

−12.8%

—

border softness

Live Company IntelligenceMexico’s Airport Giant GAP Cuts Its 2026 Traffic Forecast After a Weak Quarter — the full investor dossierInside: live share price, peer benchmarks and the latest Rio Times coverage on the company.

Rio Times · Live Ticker Intelligence

Mexico’s Airport Giant GAP Cuts Its 2026 Traffic Forecast After a Weak Quarter

GAPB · MX

Share price · live

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Peers & comparators

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Data: EODHD Fundamentals & live feed · The Rio Times Ticker Intelligence

GAP Q2 2026 Financial Detail

03Financial Detail

Metric

Q2 2025

Q2 2026

Chg

Total revenue

Ps.10,882 mn ($623M)

Ps.11,290 mn ($646M)

+3.7%

Aeronautical + non-aeronautical rev.

—

+Ps.399 mn vs Q2 2025

+4.9%

EBITDA

Ps.5,503 mn ($315M)

Ps.5,965 mn ($341M)

+8.4%

EBITDA margin (ex-IFRIC 12)

67.1%

69.3%

+220 bps

Comprehensive income

Ps.2,236 mn ($128M)

Ps.2,450 mn ($140M)

+9.6%

Passenger traffic

15.8 mn

14.96 mn

−5.6%

Read the table twice and the guidance cut looks stranger: every money line improved. Margins expanded 220 basis points, income grew faster than revenue, and the miss against the Ps.12,360 million ($707M) consensus came mostly from translation and traffic, not from cost slippage.

GAP’s regulated-infrastructure economics are doing their job; the demand side is what broke.

The CBX Merger Changes the Share Count

The quarter was also the first to consolidate Cross Border Xpress, effective May 1. The merger issued 89,740,731 new shares — taking the total to 595,018,195, roughly 18% dilution — and put Ps.30,803 million ($1.76B) of goodwill on the balance sheet, while adding about Ps.5,400 million ($309M) of cash.

CBX is a genuine strategic asset: the only cross-border airport bridge in the Americas, feeding Tijuana’s runway with San Diego passengers. But it makes every per-share comparison this year an apples-to-oranges exercise, and it arrived in the very quarter Tijuana’s own traffic fell.

Five-Year Track Record

Fiscal year

Revenue

EBITDA

Net income

2021

Ps.19.0 bn ($1.09B)

Ps.10.9 bn ($624M)

Ps.6.0 bn ($343M)

2022

Ps.27.4 bn ($1.57B)

Ps.16.1 bn ($922M)

Ps.9.0 bn ($515M)

2023

Ps.33.2 bn ($1.90B)

Ps.18.7 bn ($1.07B)

Ps.9.5 bn ($544M)

2024

Ps.26.8 bn ($1.53B)

Ps.18.1 bn ($1.04B)

Ps.8.6 bn ($492M)

2025

Ps.32.5 bn ($1.86B)

Ps.17.9 bn ($1.02B)

Ps.10.0 bn ($572M)

(Revenue includes IFRIC-12 construction accounting, which adds noise to the top line between investment cycles; the EBITDA and net income lines are the cleaner read.) The arc is a company that roughly doubled its earnings power since 2021 — which is precisely why a traffic contraction in 2026 stings: it is the first year the post-pandemic escalator runs backwards.

Earnings vs. Wall Street (per ADS, USD)

Quarter

EPS actual

EPS estimate

Surprise

Q2 2026

$2.80

$3.17

−11.7%

Q1 2026

$3.78

$3.04

+24.3%

Q4 2025

$2.06

$3.08

−33.1%

Q3 2025

$2.90

$2.92

−0.7%

Q2 2025

$2.82

$2.76

+2.2%

Two misses in the last three quarters — after years in which Mexican airport groups beat routinely. The estimate machine has not yet caught up with the new traffic reality, which is exactly what the guidance cut now forces it to do.

Balance Sheet Snapshot

Company Intelligence · Balance Sheet (Jun 30, 2026)

Total debtPs.15.9 bn ($910M)

Cash & equivalentsPs.19.8 bn ($1.13B)

Shareholders’ equityPs.52.6 bn ($3.01B)

Goodwill (CBX)Ps.30.8 bn ($1.76B)

Operating margin (TTM)57.9%

Return on equity (TTM)28.0%

Source: EODHD company fundamentals, July 16, 2026.

Post-merger, GAP is sitting on more cash than debt — unusual for an airport group and partly a CBX artifact — with a 28% return on equity. The balance sheet is not the problem.

The forecast is.

Management Signals from GAP

04Management Signals

Cutting full-year guidance from +2–5% to −3–0% in a single revision is management choosing credibility over hope: it front-loads the bad news rather than bleeding it out monthly. The accompanying message — margins up, costs flexed, CBX integration on schedule — is aimed at separating what the company controls from what it cannot.

Notably, GAP did not cut its investment commitments under its master development programs; the long-cycle bet on Mexican aviation infrastructure stands.

What to Watch Next for GAP

05What to Watch Next

Monthly traffic reports: GAP publishes passenger numbers every month — the fastest public gauge of whether −3% is the floor or the midpoint. The peso: every centavo of USD/MXN moves dollar-linked tariffs in translation; the rate stood near 17.5 at the quarter’s end. CBX integration: the first full quarters will show whether the bridge terminal’s earnings justify 18% dilution. Jamaica: whether the 18.3% revenue drop was a quarter or a trend. ASUR and OMA results: if their traffic holds while GAP’s falls, the problem is the Pacific corridor, not Mexican aviation.

Risks Facing GAP

06Risks

The bear case: US-bound tourism and border traffic keep weakening, the peso stays strong, and 2026 becomes the template rather than the exception. Regulatory risk is permanent — Mexican airport tariffs are set under government-approved master programs, and the 2023 revision episode showed how quickly the terms can move.

The CBX goodwill of Ps.30.8 billion ($1.76B) would face impairment questions if cross-border traffic disappoints. And one strong sell on the sheet is a reminder that not everyone believes the escalator restarts.

Mexican Airport Sector Context

07Sector Context

Airport operators are the closest thing markets have to a real-time gauge of North American travel, and GAP’s network — Pacific beaches, the US border, Guadalajara’s tech-and-nearshoring hub — reads like a cross-section of the Mexico trade itself. This quarter the reading was uncomfortable: the nearshoring city grew while the tourist coast and the border shrank.

For investors in Mexican infrastructure, the GAP guidance cut is the season’s clearest warning that the post-pandemic travel boom has found its ceiling — and the strong peso, celebrated everywhere else in the Mexican market, is quietly taxing the country’s dollar-earning assets.

This report is part of The Rio Times’ Company Intelligence coverage of Latin American listed companies. It is journalism, not investment advice.

GAP cut its 2026 traffic forecast to between minus 3% and flat, down from its previous guidance of 2–5% growth.

Revenue rose 3.7% to Ps.11,290 million ($646M) but missed the roughly Ps.12,360 million ($707M) that analysts had expected.

The CBX Tijuana–San Diego bridge terminal acquisition added 89.7 million new shares and Ps.30,803 million ($1.76B) of goodwill to GAP's accounts.