Lake Mead expected to drop nearly 33 feet by June 2028, and that’s not even the worst-case scenario

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LAS VEGAS (KLAS) – A critical year is ahead for the nation’s two largest reservoirs, with no relief after a record-low snowpack and a continuing drought.

A comment posted on the Colorado River Basin’s Facebook page Wednesday morning might have said it best: “Not enough water in the Monsoons to help. There’s only 2 things that can save Mead and Powell right now: 150 percent Colorado Rockies snow pack for 5 consecutive years, or God himself.”

Projections released earlier this week show Lake Mead dropping to the lowest levels seen since Hoover Dam was built in the 1930s, falling to 1,035.86 feet in November. That’s about 6.5 feet lower than Lake Mead’s level Friday at noon — 1,042.52 feet. Lake Mead is the nation’s largest reservoir, but it’s currently at 27 percent capacity.

The latest projections

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s 24-month study, which is updated monthly, published “most probable” lake levels through June 2028, when Lake Mead is expected to be at 1,009.69 feet. That represents a drop of nearly 33 feet over the next two years. When the lake is at “full pool,” the lake’s surface is at 1,229 feet.

Lake Powell, the second largest reservoir, is currently at 24 percent capacity. The federal government has consistently prioritized keeping Powell at levels that protect Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to produce hydroelectricity. To do so, the reservoir’s target level has been established as 3,525 feet. But Lake Powell is currently at 3,524.03 feet right now.

To keep Powell at its current level, the federal government has increased releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah-Wyoming border, bolstering flow in the Green River, the Colorado River’s largest tributary.

The government has also reduced releases from Lake Powell. Lower releases will have an impact on Lake Mead.

Water shortage levels that determine Colorado River allocations are based on Lake Mead’s level. And even under the most optimistic forecasts, that will mean less water for Arizona and Nevada in 2027. Those decisions are based on projections that come out in August, looking ahead at the lake’s projected level at the end of the year.

Water for the Las Vegas valley

Officials from the Southern Nevada Water Authority aren’t worried about the water supply to Las Vegas. Despite continuing growth in the valley, SNWA says Nevada is using far less than its allocation. That’s the result of water recycling and reduced use of water outdoors. SNWA receives credits for water that is recycled and returned to Lake Mead.

About 90 percent of the Las Vegas valley’s water comes from Lake Mead, with the remaining 10% from wells.

Total consumptive use of Colorado River water in Nevada is estimated to be 198,001 acre-feet in 2026 out of its 287,000-acre-foot allocation under current water shortage conditions. (An acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons — literally, the amount of water it takes to cover an acre in water a foot deep.)

The federal government is expected to establish new rules that will take effect in 2027 regarding river water allocations. Those rules might be released around the same time that Reclamation releases its next 24-month study in the middle of August. Current rules expire at the end of the year.

Worst-case scenario

Reclamation also released projections that show the best- and worst-case scenarios, shown in the graphic below. The red dashed line shows that under “Probable Minimum” projections, Lake Mead would drop below 1,000 feet by June 2028.

Some scientists say the “Probable Minimum” has been a more accurate reflection of actual reality during the drought that began in 2000.

Lake Powell’s place in the projections

Continued efforts to maintain Lake Powell’s elevation at 3,525 feet are not reflected in the projections released on Wednesday. Reclamation shows Lake Powell going far below that immediately in its projections with 10 consecutive months of declines that would put Powell at 3,491.75 feet.

If the federal government continues to prioritize Lake Powell, that’s water that won’t be sent downstream to Lake Mead, possibly amplifying the effects on Lake Mead.

The graphs in the slideshow below show levels at Lake Mead (the first slide) and Lake Powell compared to levels over the past five years.

The Colorado River supplies water to 40 million people, but scientists have said that climate change has reduced the amount of water in the basin by about 20%.

The result: More water is promised to users than the amount that actually exists.

The federal government — the Interior Department and the Bureau of Reclamation — are now shaping future agreements on how to manage the Colorado River after the seven states in the river basin failed to come to a consensus.

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Climate change

Colorado

Colorado River Basin

Interior Departent

Interior Department

Lake Mead

Southern Nevada Water Authority

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation'

water supply

Wyoming

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