The answer is … it depends on who you’re talking to

The answer is … it depends on who you’re talking to.

If you subscribe to the belief of First Metro, then it’s a “hold” for the Ayala-led property giant, a downgrade from a “buy,” with the target price cut to just P15.50 a share, from the previous P28 each.

Its reasons for the downgrade? ALI supposedly has the “weakest” balance sheet among property developers under its coverage; the potential exit from the MSCI by August 2026, and the muted outlook for its leasing portfolio.

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Its bread-and-butter residential business was also cited as the “key overhang,” saying that it continues to “underperform.”

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COL Financial, however, presents a contrasting view and continues to recommend a strong “buy” rating with fair value for the shares of Ayala Land Inc. Pegged at P33.70, a whopping 164.52-percent upside from the traded price of P12.74.

It also said that it “disagrees with the severity” of First Metro’s call, saying that the supposed stress on the balance sheet of ALI was “overstated.”

“We also view the near-term weakness from the risk of index removal as a price risk rather than value impairment,” COL said.

COL also underscored that ALI presents value “over the long term,” citing the growth in its leasing platform, the contraction of its residential backlog, the deliberate pivot in its capital expenditures and the sheer size of its asset base, which is the largest in the country’s real estate sector.

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“This is a long-duration value opportunity for investors with the patience for fundamental recovery,” COL said.

The question for investors now is, who would you believe? First Metro or COL? Take your pick. —Tina Arceo-Dumlao

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Lopez truce? Not so fast

Just when it seemed the long-running Lopez family feud was headed for calmer waters, fresh developments suggest the road to reconciliation may be bumpier than expected.

Recall that in May, the Lopez majority, led by Eugenio “Gabby” Lopez III, withdrew its controversial resolution removing cousin Federico “Piki” Lopez as president and CEO of Lopez Inc. The move was widely viewed as opening a window for dialogue after months of boardroom clashes, court battles and public exchanges.

That window, however, appears to be narrowing.

On May 29, Piki filed a new indirect contempt petition, adding another legal wrinkle to the dispute. The filing prompted a sharp response from the Lopez majority, which later accused him of talking peace while simultaneously pursuing legal action.

The latest flash point involves First Gen’s multibillion-peso transactions with Prime Infrastructure Capital Inc. The Lopez majority recently pressed First Gen for documents and details related to the deal’s terms, particularly provisions that could be triggered by changes in management control.

The developments mark a sharp contrast to the optimism that surfaced after the withdrawal of the removal resolution. Instead of moving closer to a settlement, both sides appear to be digging deeper into their respective positions.

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For now, investors hoping for a clean resolution may have to wait a little longer. In the Lopez family drama, every apparent breakthrough seems to come with a sequel. —Emmanuel John B. Abris INQ