President Trump’s ‘’hot potato’’ peace deal with Iran

‘‘You got to know when to hold ‘em

Know when to fold ‘em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run’’

Lyrics from the song and movie ‘’The Gambler’’ by late American country music singer Kenny Rogers.

Much to the relief of the world (minus Israel) the US/Israel war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which erupted on February 25, has now come to an end.

In the past weeks, while the belligerents were lobbing deadly ordnances both ways, behind the scenes, diplomats, military experts on both sides with the facilitation of various significant countries in the region were hammering out a peace deal that will end hostilities and hopefully re-calibrate the broken relationships that resulted from the war.

Inevitably in the process some parties, as in the conclusion of wars of this nature, would walk off with significant gains, while others would end up losing some. Although there is a tacit, unspoken decision among the parties to keep the language and presentation of the terms of the peace agreement as nuanced as possible, what cannot be denied is that there were indeed winners and losers in the war.

Before Feruary 25, Iran had lived in the shadow of constant threat of attack and invasion from the United States and Israel over its nuclear power development. Indeed in modern era Iran had been a target of attacks and invasion from outside powers; Russia, Britain and the United States in that order. Indeed what we know today as British Petroleum was actually first established as Anglo-Persian Oil Corporation, (APOC) on the discovery of huge oil and gas deposits in the country. But along the line as the Iranians were not satisfied with the way the joint venture was being run by the British,( sounds familiar isn’t it?) decided to effect some changes to the arrangement which irked the Brits.

In 1953 the United States in collaboration with the British decided to overthrow the democratically elected government of Iran led by Mohammed Mossadegh. The coup christened ‘’operation Ajax’’ organised jointly by the American CIA and British MI6 and coordinated by Kermit Roosevelt, nephew of President Teddy Roosevelt (as it were with elements of the Iranian Armed forces) installed a monarchy under Mohammed Reza Pahlavi the son of the former Shah who ruled from 1953 to 1979 when he was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution of that year.

From 1979 to date, Iran had endured a war with neighbouring Iraq, instigated obviously by a constellation of Gulf Arab states and the US that lasted for 10 years with millions of lives lost. Iran had also been under comprehensive sanctions ranging from economic, military, diplomatic spheres all designed to bring the country to its knees.

When the US and Israel launched their devastating strike on Iran on February 25, it was intended to decapitate the Iranian leadership and cause an internal crisis leading eventually to a total regime change in the country. Indeed in many ways the strike was a later day variation of the 1953 ‘’operation Ajax’’ coup which overthrew Mossadegh.

But over months since Iran was subjected to the most devastating military strikes in history against a country by two nuclear powers, Iran has emerged massively stirred, but clearly not shaken. The military doctrine that the Iranians deployed in the war, of using concentrated missile counter attacks against US strategic assets in the Middle East ended up making the war costly for America to continue over the distance. The missile counter strikes by Iran was strategic in nature, aiming and succeding in tactically destroying the military bases that give US the tactical edge in military engagements in the region. But more tellingly, the decapitation of the US bases meant that going forward, the US would not be able to perform the role of the dominant strategic factor it used to play in the region. For all practical purposes the US has been overthrown as the strategic leader and guarantor of the Middle East order. The war demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that Iran had developed deep tactical capabilities that helped it not just to cope with the massive blows it received, but to also to reply devastatingly in kind as to equal if not up the ante.

Without mincing words, the terms of the peace agreement signed by President Trump reflects this reality.   It is not only a capitulation of 80 per cent of Iran’s demands, it gave Iran much leeway in some of the initial demands on Iran by the US and Israel and included new ones that Iran never even contemplated before; Iran does not have to submit its uranium enrichment details for inspection to the US; even the nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency, can only do the inspection on Iranian terms and schedule. Iran will also be given half of the 25 billion dollars frozen in foreign banks even before the commencement of the implementation of the peace deal and the remainder subsequently. Before the commencement of the war, Iran did not control the Straits of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for 20 per cent of global oil and gas shipment. Now Iran has muscled in and owns a large piece of the Hormuz action including charging fees in US dollars or Chinese Yuan, from ships passing through the straits. Indeed, on a grand scale of measurement Iran has ended up with more of what President Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA multilateral agreement of 2015 designed to limit Iran’s nuclear development programme which President Trump condemned and tore up to shreds. With the present situation, President Trump has ended up not only swallowing his own vomit, he has actually eaten up more of the stuff he never contemplated in the first place.

Why did the President Trump eat this humble pie?

For sure Iran did not defeat the US in the classical sense in this war. The circumstances of the war, with rising fuel prices in the US, the looming mid term US elections, the clear and present danger of the US losing its strategic relevance in the Middle East, the danger that further US involvement in the war could lead to economic depression in America and the world and the fact that the US really had no more military options left in its arsenal outside the deployment of nuclear weapons to bring Iran war to a decisive military end in its favour.

Indeed for President Trump, despite his truculent self, his disposition was tempered by a reality check that on the Iran war he did not have all the aces as he may have thought before he launched the war and that it was time to cut his losses and settle for something that would be acceptable to the American people. By this Trump came face to face with the reality of the saying that when you are in a hole as the Iran war was for him, it was better to stop digging.

The peace deal with Iran in its existential circumstance became metaphorically a ‘’hot potato’’ in President Trump’s palms which he had to drop before it got him scalded and scarred.

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