For a peace deal in West Asia, first protect the ceasefire

The situation remains in flux. The fallout of the instability extends far beyond the region and the energy sector, disrupting global supply chains, and countries the world over.

3 min readJun 30, 2026 06:00 AM IST

First published on: Jun 30, 2026 at 06:00 AM IST

The four-day cycle of attacks may have subsided, but it underscores how fragile the nearly two-week-old ceasefire between Iran and the US continues to be. At the centre of the renewed tensions, again, is the Strait of Hormuz. A Singapore-flagged container ship that Iran is accused of striking last Thursday was using the toll-free temporary shipping route announced by Oman in coordination with the International Maritime Organisation. The incident prompted a US military response, triggering further exchanges, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warning that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz must use only the “authorised route” through Iranian territorial waters. Clearly, Tehran regards control over the Strait as a strategic lever, worth risking the ceasefire for, even if preserving it could bring substantial economic relief.

Adding to the uncertainty is the ambiguous language of the Memorandum of Understanding. While it requires Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, it does not define what those “arrangements” entail. Tehran’s interpretation appears to be that it alone can determine the routes commercial ships must follow. The vague language is now being exploited, as both sides accuse the other of violating the agreement. The other problem is Lebanon. The US-brokered security agreement between Lebanon and Israel, signed on Friday, provides for a phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of the south alongside the deployment of the Lebanese Army, contingent on the dismantling of Hezbollah. Iran has, however, displayed its willingness to close the Strait and resume hostilities if it believes the agreement’s terms on Lebanon are being violated by the US and Israel. With competing interpretations of the MoU, interlinked ceasefires, continuing proxy conflicts and overlapping security arrangements all pulling in different directions, any one of these fault lines could trigger a wider conflagration.

The situation remains in flux. The fallout of the instability extends far beyond the region and the energy sector, disrupting global supply chains, and countries the world over. The economic and military costs of an escalation appear to have given both sides an incentive to seek pathways to preserve the ceasefire framework. Sustained diplomatic engagement and a shared commitment to resolving the differences will be needed to prevent a spiralling of the conflict. This will be tested on Tuesday in Qatar where the two sides are expected to meet for talks.