Rove says Iran may create ‘problems’ before midterms to hurt Trump

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Republican strategist Karl Rove on Monday said Iran could create “problems” to hurt President Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections.

“The Iranians are not dumb,” Rove told Fox News’s Paul Gigot. “They know that the fall campaign starts in earnest on Labor Day. I would not be surprised to see them attempt to have an influence on the outcome by creating problems in mid-August and causing oil prices to rise and uncertainty to grow.”

Gigot noted that Trump “has some persuading to do to convince the public” that the Iran war has been a success for the U.S. Rove pushed back, asking what “do they say is a success? before referring to a recent Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute poll.

“And in that poll, they ask the respondents, ‘What do you want out of all of this?'” the strategist said. “And they offered them several –– three options. The first was we’re in a negotiation: Iran government remains but in exchange for limits on their nuclear missile programs. And then two other change-oriented options.”

Rove also pointed to the survey’s findings that suggested 17 percent of independents preferred negotiating with Iran while 71 percent supported regime change. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans preferred regime change and 25 percent said they preferred negotiations. Over half of Democrats supported negotiations with Iran, according to the results.

“So, the president’s getting bad marks on getting this thing resolved in part because he’s discouraging his supporters, and not necessarily converting opponents,” he continued. “Democrats wanted a negotiation; Republicans and independents wanted a change in the regime.”

Gigot then referred to lowering gas prices and asked if that could change voters’ opinions.

“Well, even if it happens, I’m not convinced that it’s going to be that dispositive, that that’s going to determine the outcome, the election, [it] will help, obviously,” Rove answered. “But look, we’re not the only ones who know this. We’re not the only ones paying attention to oil prices. Remember, all of these negotiations with Iran need to be completed by the middle of August.”

Experts have said that rising prices caused by the Iran war could hurt Trump and congressional Republicans politically in the fall midterms. Polling taken since the U.S. first launched strikes on Iran in February has frequently shown the war is unpopular among many Americans, who also say the conflict’s effect on the cost of living has impacted their livelihoods.

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran made reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply is transported, a priority. Its closure led gas prices to skyrocket, reaching over $4.50 last month.

Trump on Monday called on gas companies to lower their prices, even as prices have steadily gone down since the MOU was signed earlier this month.

“Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south.”

He added, “The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right — DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE!”

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2026 midterm elections

Donald Trump

gas prices

Iran war

Iranian regime

Karl Rove

MOU

Paul Gigot

Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute

Trump administration

U.S.-Iran peace talks

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