What does the Royal Navy's drone warship plan mean for Scotland?

ByCalum Watson

BBC Scotland News

Drones, nuclear weapons and stealth jets - the UK government's long-awaited defence spending strategy has finally been published.

Nearly £300bn will be spent over four years under the Defence Investment Plan (DIP).

The money includes more than £63bn for nuclear weaponry such as replacements for the Trident submarines based at Faslane.

Another £8bn has been pledged to build the next generation of RAF jets, some of which could be operating out of Scotland.

But the most eye-catching announcement is a plan to invest £5bn in a radical "drone transformation" of the armed forces, including a "hybrid fleet" of both crewed and uncrewed vessels.

For decades, Scotland's naval shipyards in Glasgow and Rosyth have dominated construction of the UK's surface warships.

So are the latest announcements good or bad news for the country's shipbuilders - and what's behind them?

Why is there a change of thinking?

One thing the wars in Ukraine - and more recently the Gulf - have taught us is that warfare is evolving rapidly.

The sinking of Russia's flagship cruiser Moskva in April 2022 was a chilling wake-up call, showing how a major vessel can be destroyed by inexpensive anti-ship missiles.

Drone aircraft and boats have been repeatedly used against the Russian fleet - as the head of the Royal Navy, Sir Gwyn Jenkins, explained in a speech to the security think tank Rusi earlier this year. , external

"In just a short period, Ukraine, a nation with no warships, has managed to destroy or disable a third of Putin's Black Sea fleet, primarily through maritime drones, uncrewed vessels and long-range strikes," he said.

On the opposing side in that conflict, Russia's hypersonic missiles - travelling at around 4,000mph (6,437kmh) - have highlighted another threat to traditional warships.

In short, relying on a relatively small number of highly sophisticated, hugely expensive ships that can be taken out in the blink of an eye is now considered a bad idea.

What the First Sea Lord wants instead is more "mass" - cheaper, less vulnerable ships in greater numbers so that you can afford to lose a few without losing the war.

What would a hybrid fleet look like?

The Royal Navy has already purchased and started trialling small drone boats similar to ones we have seen used by Ukraine or Iran recently, as well as uncrewed minesweepers.

But the new strategy also includes far bigger drone vessels that could serve as missile or sensor platforms.

There are also plans for submersible and airborne drones, all controlled by a crewed "mothership" known as a Common Combat Vessel or CCV.

Shipbuilders have already been drawing up concept designs for these uncrewed warships - some of which are about 300ft (100m) long.

For perspective, that's about the same length as MV Glen Sannox, the second-largest ferry in Scotland's CalMac fleet.

Will they be built in Scotland?

Scottish military shipbuilding is currently enjoying a huge renaissance.

The two BAE Systems shipyards in Glasgow - at Govan and Scotstoun - are busy fulfilling orders for 13 Type-26 anti-submarine frigates - eight of them for the Royal Navy and "at least" five for Norway.

That is expected to keep them busy until 2038 at the earliest and possibly longer if more export orders come through.

In the east of Scotland, Babcock is constructing five cheaper but highly versatile Type-31 frigates at Rosyth. The final ship - HMS Campbeltown - is due in service in the early 2030s.

The new hybrid navy blueprint involves at least six CCV motherships to replace the current Type 45 destroyers.

So will these new ships also be built in Scotland?

Babcock is talking up its chances.

The chief executive of the firm's marine division, Sir Nick Hine, a former Second Sea Lord in the Royal Navy, argues they would be a natural follow-on from the Type-31s.

He told BBC Scotland News: "I don't want to count chickens, you're never any good until you've actually got the contract signed and even then you want the cash.

"But let's be really clear, the Defence Investment Plan is positive for Babcock, it's positive for UK industry and it's positive for Rosyth."

BAE is also optimistic that it will gain from the new plans - but there other potential players.

Last year, the Spanish state-owned shipbuilding firm Navantia took over Harland & Wolff, based in Belfast, where it is currently building two giant "Fleet Solid Support" ships" - supply vessels for the Navy's aircraft carriers.

Then there's a new kid on the block, a company called Balaena, which recently took over the Cammell Laird shipyard in Merseyside along with the A&P yards in Tyneside and Falmouth.

Scottish shipyards may think they are in pole position but, as Hine points out, don't count your chickens - or warships - before they're hatched.

And at the end of the day, the Ministry of Defence may end up awarding the contract to a consortium made up of some - or conceivably all - of these firms.

Which sites in Scotland might benefit?

Regardless of who gets to be the "prime" or lead contractor, there will be pressure to spread the benefits throughout the UK.

Nowadays big ships are usually built in blocks - then welded together - meaning bits can be built in one shipyard, then transported to another for assembly.

This was the modular approach adopted for the two aircraft carriers assembled at Rosyth more than a decade ago and it heavily influenced the 2016 Parker Review which aimed to make naval shipbuilding more efficient and sustainable.

Cammell Laird, for instance, now builds the bow sections for the Type 26 frigates and transports them on barges from their Birkenhead base to Govan on the Clyde.

Ferguson Marine in Port Glasgow has also constructed smaller units for the ships.

Expect to see shipyards and fabrication sites throughout the UK making bits of the new CCV motherships and drone vessels.

And that could also benefit smaller sites in Scotland.

The former BiFab fabrication yard at Methil in Fife failed to cash in on demand for offshore wind turbines, but since becoming part of the Harland & Wolff group things are looking up.

The site has just delivered a huge barge which will be used to transport ship blocks from Devon to the main Belfast shipyard, and it's also being touted as a contender to build three new floating dry docks for the Faslane submarine base., external

Methil no more? Maybe The Proclaimers will have to rewrite the lyrics of their famous deindustrialisation lament, Letter to America.

A second Harland & Wolff fabrication site at Arnish, on the Isle of Lewis, could also play a role, although it seems currently focused on the renewables sector.

Then there's state-owned Ferguson Marine - still patiently waiting for the Scottish government to make good on its pre-election promise of new ship orders as construction of MV Glen Rosa, the second of two ill-fated dual fuel CalMac ferries, finally nears completion.

Just a mile or so downriver in Greenock, the enormous Inchgreen dry dock - pretty much unused for two decades but one of the few such UK facilities big enough to handle an aircraft carrier - appears to be being readied for something, as yet to be disclosed.

Jointly owned by Inverclyde Council and Peel Ports, it recently secured £20m of UK government funding to repair the flooded pump room and ageing dock gates.

And don't forget the supply chain.

High-tech defence firms like Thales in Glasgow, Leonardo in Edinburgh and Raytheon in Glenrothes and Livingston can all be expected to have a role.

The ripple effect could spread as far as the Western Isles where the defence research firm Qinetic has drone testing facilities on Benbecula and South Uist.

Political rows and the 'elephant in the room'

When large amounts of publish cash are being distributed to weapons firms - and with different parties in power at Holyrood and Westminster - it's almost inevitable political rammies will follow.

The biggest single pillar of spending in the DIP is for nuclear weaponry - something both the SNP and the Scottish Greens argue is immoral, outdated and overly expensive.

Meanwhile, supporters of what they term the UK's "independent nuclear deterrent" argue that events in Ukraine and the Gulf show that it's more important than ever, especially when the reliability of the US as an ally is being questioned.

Until recently, the Scottish government would refuse to hand over public money to support munitions manufacture, prompting a warning that plans for a specialist submarine welding centre on the Clyde might be scuppered.

Labour's former Defence Secretary John Healey accused the SNP of "student politics" while, on BBC Scotland's Sunday Show, a Scottish government cabinet minister defended its longstanding and "principled" position.

A few weeks later, John Swinney quietly ditched the policy (as part of a statement on Gaza), external on grounds that the world has changed.

The Scottish Greens, who the minority SNP government often depends on for support, remain sceptical.

And then there's the question of how is it all being paid for?

Sir Keir Starmer concedes that other non-military budgets will have to be further squeezed.

What does that mean for money coming from Westminster to Holyrood as a result of "Barnett Consequentials", external?

Plenty of rammy potential there.

Arguably a trickier issue to navigate, and one which some regard as the "elephant in the room " (an issue everyone tries to avoid talking about) is whether Scotland actually has enough suitably-skilled workers to deliver these ships.

The core workforce at the country's shipbuilders are mainly Scottish but at times of high demand hundreds of welders, platers and electricians have in the past been brought in from countries such as Poland, Romania and the Philippines.

Unions aren't happy - they say it creates a two-tier workforce when what we should be doing is pulling out the stops to train a new generation of shipbuilders.

Scottish shipyards do have strong apprenticeship programmes and BAE has opened a shipbuilding academy at Scotstoun.

But rebuilding the generations of experience and skills lost in Scotland's late 20th Century shipbuilding decline isn't a problem that can be fixed quickly.

Investing in new military hardware is one thing; investing in people is another. And the clock is ticking.