Algeria's parliamentary vote raises questions on real change

Algeria is electing a new parliament on Thursday, with incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune presenting the vote as another step toward renewing the country's political institutions. However, many observers expect neither a change in power nor a fundamental shift in the political system.

Right now, something else is at the top of many Algerians' agendas: soccer. The national team has qualified for the knockout rounds of the 2026 World Cup.

"The elections are currently competing with other topics, especially the World Cup and the start of summer vacation," Robin Frisch, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's office in Algiers, told DW. Nevertheless, he added, it is "definitely an important political event," even though there have been few large-scale campaign rallies.

According to the Algerian electoral authority ANIE, around 24.7 million Algerians are eligible to vote for new National Assembly on July 2. The 407 members of the lower house will be elected for a five-year term.

More than a routine election?

"I consider these elections to be extremely significant," said political scientist Rachid Ouaissa of Philipps University in Marburg, central Germany. The 2021 election was still heavily influenced by the pro-democracy Hirak protests, he added. This time, he sees a different trend. "If you follow the election campaign, you'll notice that there are a great many independent candidates."

Ouaissa interprets the numerous independent candidacies as a sign that parts of society are again seeing parliament more as a political arena. Frisch also sees this as both an expression of disillusionment with political parties and a sign of new political mobilization. "The People's Assembly is Algeria's most visible democratic institution," he said.

At the same time, voter turnout is likely to be a particular focus. According to official figures, turnout in the 2021 parliamentary election was only 23%, a historic low. A further decline would reinforce the impression that many Algerians continue to distrust state institutions.

Democracy, with strict limits

The democratic quality of the political system, however, remains controversial. The Washington-based think tank Freedom House has once again classified  Algeria as "not free." Even though elections and political parties exist, actual power continues to lie with the presidency, the military and the security apparatus, Freedom House said.

The Bertelsmann Transformation Index has reached  a similar conclusion: Hopes for reform have largely faded, and Algeria has politically "largely reverted to pre-Arab Spring conditions."

Since the end of the Hirak protests, several opposition parties, journalists and human rights organizations have lamented an increasingly restricted political and media space.

Cautious opening or controlled participation?

Nevertheless, there is still political space for democratic procedures, said Frisch. For this reason, he also views the return of numerous opposition parties after boycotting the 2021 election as generally positive.

However, the opposition's return in particular is being interpreted in different ways. The Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum sees it less as a political opening and more as the result of institutional pressure.

The underlying factor is a new political party law that threatens to dissolve parties after two election boycotts. The opposition's return also does not necessarily reflect new trust in the political system; rather, some view it as an attempt to help shape development, at least from within.

Electoral reforms are also viewed critically. According to Frisch, the expanded powers of the electoral authority ANIE have been met with skepticism by parts of the opposition. Furthermore, the quota for women on electoral lists has been reduced from 50% to one-third.

But Ouaissa of Philipps University still recognizes signs of change. President Tebboune is striving — at least rhetorically — to reshape the relationship between the state and society, he said. The participation of former Hirak activists in the elections is also noteworthy, he added.

Frisch also pointed to new civil society initiatives, such as a feminist collective that has been established in southern Algeria.

No power shift expected

Despite this progress, Frisch doesn't see much room for significant political change. "Decisive political initiatives generally do not originate in parliament," he said. The Bertelsmann Transformation Index also describes Algeria as a system of "authoritarian stabilization," in which parliament primarily serves a rubber-stamp function.

Ouaissa is somewhat more optimistic. The 80-year-old Tebboune may, for the first time, be able to work with a parliament that is no longer entirely shaped by the old networks of the Bouteflika era, he said, concluding that "both the political leadership and society therefore have high expectations for this election."

Why the election matters for Europe

Regardless of its domestic political impact, Algeria's parliamentary election is of great significance for Europe. This is particularly true for France, the former colonial power, with which Algeria continues to maintain a tense relationship to this day.

In the past few years, Algeria has become an important energy partner for Europe. The country also plays a central role in migration and the stabilization of the Sahel region, contributing to a new dynamic in relations between Algeria and the EU. According to Frisch, Algeria will likely seek to further expand its role as a regional anchor of stability.

The parliamentary election is unlikely to fundamentally alter the political balance of power in Algeria. But it does highlight the tension the country faces, between calls for political renewal and a system whose centers of power remain outside parliament.

This article was originally written in German.