Trump-Republican infighting hands the Democrats a chance

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One year ago, the alliance between President Trump and congressional Republicans looked airtight, just as it has for virtually the entirety of the last decade. Indeed, together they had just muscled through a sweeping tax package, and criticism of the president from Republican lawmakers was all but nonexistent.

That world is now unraveling, as Republican senators increasingly spar with a president who they see as too focused on his own priorities at the expense of their reelection prospects.

Simultaneously, these tensions are a tremendous gift to Democrats. In addition to using the fighting to bolster their argument that Republicans are unable to govern, Democrats can also point to Trump’s actions and say that even Republicans feel he isn’t addressing voters’ top concerns.

Over just the last two weeks, Trump has blown up a signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing bill, stonewalled requests for information surrounding Iran, called a senator a “lunatic” and refused to budge on his demands to pass non-viable voting legislation at the expense of other key legislation.

To that end, Republican Senators’ frustration came to a head at a recent Hill lunch. Meant to project unity, Trump and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) got into a screaming match following Cassidy’s vote to curb Trump’s war powers, later fuming that Trump treats Congress “merely as an appendage” echoing Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R-N.C.) recent complaints.

Tillis himself has also railed against Trump’s myopic focus on the SAVE America Act at the expense of bipartisan housing legislation that Republicans had been counting on to be a tailwind in the midterms.

Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn has also publicly criticized Trump’s divisive rhetoric. Cassidy and Cornyn were defeated by Trump-backed primary challengers, an intervention which itself angered a number of senators, and Tillis is retiring, so they have a free hand to attack Trump.

However, the tensions are expanding.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has been increasingly vocal with his frustration over some of Trump’s recent moves, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) “compared Trump’s actions of late to a moose startling a team of sled dogs.”

For Democrats, the opening is real and the timing could hardly be better. Just 32 percent of registered voters say the country is “on the right track” per Economist/YouGov polling.

Likewise, Trump’s approval ratings continue to hover near record lows — 40 percent approve versus 58 percent disapprove per RealClearPolitics. And on the economy, which the housing bill could have addressed, it’s even lower, sitting at just 36 percent approve.

Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot is steady at 6 points according to RealClearPolitics, but among Hispanics and independents, Democrats have a 34 and 15-point edge, respectively, according to Emerson polling.

Aside from bringing the Senate to a virtual halt, the optics of Trump refusing to sign a housing bill until he gets his way on the SAVE Act, which Thune has repeatedly told Trump can’t pass, are ideal for Democrats. Republicans had been counting on a very public ceremony to show voters that they are committed to lowering costs, but Trump’s actions robbed them of an excellent opportunity.

The campaign ads write themselves: “The president wants to make it harder for you to vote rather than make it easier for you to live” as one political strategist said in a recent interview.

Put another way, these intra-party fights make Trump appear further out of touch on the issues voters are concerned with. Holding up legislation to address affordability unless a White House ballroom is funded is hardly a winning message.

Similarly, Democratic candidates should have no problem exploiting these tensions to draw further wedges between Trump, his still-loyal base and a number of GOP senators.

As summer turns to fall, Hill Republicans have few good options. Distancing themselves or even attacking Trump may boost their standing with independents but will surely anger Republican voters. Even for Republicans in deep-red states, being on the receiving end of Trump’s ire is dangerous, as Cassidy and Cornyn found out.

Alternatively, defending Trump or staying silent risks angering independents, a key concern for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the only Senate Republican up for election in a state that went for Kamala Harris, and whose election is seen as a lynchpin for both parties.

All of this being said, whether or not Democrats can capitalize remains unknown. Their party’s favorability, at minus-20, is worse than Republicans‘ minus-17, and even worse than Trump’s at minus-15.

The growing power of an insurgent left wing may also complicate things for Democrats as Republicans work to portray the whole party as left-wing extremists.

Ultimately however, Trump’s ongoing fight with Senate Republicans undoubtedly gives Democrats an opportunity to bolster their case to the American people. Unless the president reverses course, which he is fully capable of doing, he will only speed up his descent into lame duck status and further undermine his own legacy.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”