Renewed war with Iran threatens to derail congressional agenda

The faltering of President Trump’s peace deal with Iran throws a wrench into Congress’s agenda as Republican leaders’ plans to pass a defense authorization bill and an emergency supplemental defense spending package face new hurdles amid threats of new U.S. strikes on Iran.

Trump was able to quell growing Republican defections over the war after holding a heated meeting with GOP senators before the July 4 recess but he could see more pushback from Republican lawmakers if he walks away from the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran.

Democrats are discussing forcing additional votes on Iran war powers resolutions to direct Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from Iran but haven’t yet mapped out their plan for the July work period.

A Democratic strategist said the months leading up to the general election will be consumed by partisan battles in Congress over the war, which polls show is highly unpopular with voters.

“The rest of the year is going to be spent on these issues that unite the Democratic Party and divide the Republican Party. It’s going to make John Thune’s life very difficult,” the source said, referring to the Senate majority leader from South Dakota.

Votes to curtail Trump’s power as commander-in-chief could pick up more Republican support,  since some GOP senators earlier this year said they voted against resolutions to end the war because Trump and Iran had announced a ceasefire.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a conservative skeptic of U.S. military entanglements abroad, for example, has consistently voted against Iran war powers resolutions and has cited Trump’s efforts to reach a peace deal with Iran as a reason not to vote with Democrats on the matter.

At the same time, Hawley and other Republicans want to see a quick end to the conflict, which has driven up gas prices by $1.50 since the war began in late February. Fuel prices have come down some since Trump reached a tentative peace deal with Iran.

Trump on Wednesday declared the ceasefire “over” and the U.S. Central Command announced a few hours later that U.S. forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran.

Democrats say that will create problems for efforts to pass the National Defense Authorization Act, which is slated to come to the Senate floor next week, as well as $67.1 billion in emergency spending requested by the Pentagon.

One Democratic aide said funneling tens of billions of dollars in additional funding toward a war that hasn’t been authorized by Congress would be a “tough sell” with Democrats.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, warned last month that Democrats won’t vote for an emergency supplemental defense spending package if Trump doesn’t seek authorization for the war from Congress.

“Until they authorize this conflict, I don’t think we should subsidize” it, Reed told The Hill last month.

Danielle Pletka, a distinguished senior fellow in foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute, said Trump has a military plan on his desk that U.S. commanders believe could force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without making any major concessions to its theocratic regime.

“The president has had on his desk for months now a 10- to 14-day plan that would do what was necessary to finish out the mission of the war on Iran. It would take out the remaining missile sites we saw them work on, the remaining parts of their defense-industrial complex, the remaining nuclear [program,] and some of the critical [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] emplacements and do that in a way that CENTCOM feels would mean we could walk away, not have a deal, and stop worrying about Iran for a little while,” she said.

“Will it take 10 to 14 days? Who knows? Is the president going to follow that plan? Who knows?” she said.

So far Trump has been reluctant to order a full-scale resumption of strikes that would roil financial markets and send oil prices higher.

A major escalation of hostilities could spur more Republicans to vote against the war in both the Senate and House.

A senior Senate Democratic aide said that Democrats will discuss their strategy for bringing up additional votes on Iran war powers resolutions directing Trump to cease hostilities.

Trump blew up at four Republican senators who voted last month to pass a non-binding House resolution directing him to withdraw U.S. forces from the conflict.

The president got into a shouting match with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted for the war powers resolution, at a tense meeting in the Senate Mansfield Room on June 24, over whether his administration has done enough to keep lawmakers fully informed about the conflict.

Republican senators are warning that the Trump administration will have a tough task even mustering 50 GOP votes for an emergency defense spending package, which may have to move through the budget reconciliation process to get around a Democratic filibuster.

“I think the supplemental is in big trouble,” said a Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment on the brewing fight over war funding.

Thune has said he would prefer to pass more funding for the Pentagon through a defense supplemental spending bill that moves through the regular appropriations process instead of attempting to do so through a third budget reconciliation package, which would consume weeks of floor time.

But the defense supplemental will be in limbo until Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the chairman of the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, is able to return to the Senate. He was hospitalized on June 14 and his staff has provided few details about his condition.

Democrats are coming under pressure from their progressive base, which has shown growing strength in recent Senate primaries, to stand firm against additional defense spending.

“Congress should not greenlight this war by continuing to fund it. They should listen to the American people, who want taxpayer dollars to be supporting families at home and not bombing them abroad,” said Hanna Homestead, a research analyst at the National Priorities Project at the Institute for Policy Studies, a budget project focused on realigning federal spending.

Homestead said polls show “Americans do not support this war, even from the beginning.”

“We’re seeing this agenda being repudiated at the polls already and I think legislators should take note of that and really listen to what the people want,” she said. “We don’t want war, we want investment at home.”

A national survey of 1,795 registered voters by the Financial Times and Focaldata conducted from June 26 to June 30 found that only 31 percent of respondents think the conflict with Iran has made the United States stronger while 44 percent believe it has left the nation in a weaker position.

And only 36 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance while only 21 percent of independents think Trump is doing a good job, according to the survey.

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