Israel must stay out of the latest Iran-US fighting

At the time of writing, Israel had not joined the U.S. in renewing the war against Iran. Nor had Iran fired any missiles against Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened that, should Iran fire at Israel, Tehran should “not count on there being calm.” Instead, he warned Iran that it should not “expect a repeat of what happened before … The previous response was powerful enough, but any further attempt to harm us, will be met with a different response—far more powerful.”

These are fiery words indeed, but Netanyahu should be careful to limit himself to words not actions.

The temptation to retaliate against enemy missile strikes harks back to the dilemma that Israel faced in 1991, when the coalition led by the U.S. attacked Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Prior to Operation Desert Storm, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had threatened to wipe out “half of Israel” if attacked. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir was prepared to order a preemptive strike against Iraqi missile launchers.

Washington feared that Israeli participation in the war would rupture the coalition of European and Arab forces that it had carefully assembled. The latter even included troops from Hafez al-Assad’s Syria. President George H. W. Bush was able to prevail upon Shamir to hold off any strikes on Iraq’s launchers. In exchange, Bush agreed that the launchers would be among America’s first targets once the war was underway.

With sirens sounding in Israel as Iraq fired Scuds at the Jewish state in the war’s early stages, the right wingers in Shamir’s war cabinet pressed him to order an Israeli military response. It took quite a bit to prevent him. That included a preliminary call from Secretary of State Jim Baker and multiple calls from the president. It took American promises to transfer Patriot air defense systems to Israel. It took the dispatch of an American general to act as liaison between the Israeli military and Central Command in Riyadh Saudi Arabia, and of Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger as personal envoy to the Prime Minister. This all enabled Shamir to face down the right-wingers and avert a retaliatory Israeli strike against Iraq.

Current circumstances are quite different. This time, there is no coalition directly participating in the American effort. On the other hand, although Iran’s threat to Israel is more serious than Iraq’s was at that time. Israel has far more powerful defensive systems than were available to it during the Gulf War. Moreover, Iran has yet to attack Israel amid the current fighting. It has instead targeted American bases in Jordan and hit several Gulf Arab states, even employing cluster munitions against Bahrain.

In any event, it is far from clear how much Israel could add operationally to the strikes the U.S. Air Force and Navy already are conducting. Moreover, even if Israel controls the skies, its operations against Iran will not automatically protect its country from missile strikes, any more than the Gulf states have been protected from Iranian missiles and drones, despite American air dominance.

An Israeli strike could also prompt Yemen’s Houthis to re-enter the war. They too, like Iran, have thus far held their fire.

Finally, the Israeli air force continues to conduct strikes in both Gaza and Lebanon; in the latter case, it is doing so even as it moves closer to a peace agreement with its northern neighbor. Fighting on multiple fronts continues to take its toll on both personnel and planes; joining the fight against Iran would intensify the wear and tear on both.

Politically as well, Israel stands to lose much if it re-enters the war. The fact that 103 Democrats voted against aid to Israel on Wednesday reflects growing dissatisfaction with Israeli policy not only on the extreme Left, but also among more moderate Democratic legislators and the people they represent.

On the Right as well, it is not only conspiracy theorists who are increasingly critical of Israel. Should Israel enter the war, extremists in both groups would argue, as many have previously, that Israel and Netanyahu in particular have instigated renewal of this increasingly unpopular conflict.

With questionable marginal operational utility, and negative political consequences, it is essential that Netanyahu face down his own right-wingers as Shamir did 35 years ago.

Netanyahu is scheduled to attend Senator Lindsay Graham’s (R-S.C.) funeral. No doubt, the prime minister will meet with President Trump. Trump should follow his predecessor’s example and promise the Israeli leader both more air defense support and even closer cooperation than that which already exists between the two militaries.

Netanyahu should in turn emulate the prime minister who appointed him to his first major political position and undertake to keep his country out of the latest eruption of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.