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A Democratic congressional majority depends on the most left-wing Democrats

The Hill

PoliticsThe Hill·Jul 16, 2026·4 min read

A Democratic congressional majority depends on the most left-wing Democrats

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

November sets the stage for 2028, and Democrats may find their left wing on it. Should Democrats take control of Congress, as many predict, their majorities will likely be narrow and pivot on their most left-wing members. The resulting two years could produce something that Democratic leaders neither need nor want.

Democrats — trailing 215-220 in the House and 47-53 in the Senate — need a net gain of just three House and four Senate seats to take control of Congress this November.

Based solely on 1986-2022 historical averages of presidential party losses in second midterm elections, Republicans should be on pace to lose 11 House and six Senate seats. Even going by the smaller sample size and higher second-term presidential loss average for George W. Bush (2006) and Barack Obama (2014), Republicans would lose 21 House seats and 7 Senate seats.

But Republicans will almost certainly cut into these historical averages. For one thing, they prevailed in the states’ mid-decade redistricting, apparently netting 10 seats into their column. Also, the Senate map is more favorable to them this year than it was in 2006 or for Democrats in 2014. In addition, Republicans have had a sizable funding raising advantage for some time.

The Supreme Court’s recent decision on party spending adds further to that advantage. As Politico put it, “coordinated spending between candidates and party committees,” was once “capped, with the specific amounts depending on the size of the district or state.” After the decision, “those limits no longer apply.”

Taken together, what were already likely to be limited election gains for Democrats in November look even more so now.

Thus, while history is not the present and averages are not outcomes, one thing is clear: Should Democrats take either or both bodies of Congress, their majorities are likely to be small. And if they win majorities, the marginal members may prove quite uncooperative to leadership, since Democratic socialists are winning primaries in districts that virtually guarantee them general election victories.

In New York, following democratic socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement, two democratic socialists won Democratic primaries for safe House seats. Another radical progressive — Mamdani-endorsed Brad Lander (D) — knocked off a House incumbent. In Colorado, Melat Kiros (D), another democratic socialist, knocked out a longtime Democratic incumbent. With more primaries still to go, more democratic socialists and left-wing nominees may yet join these on their way to Congress.

What’s happening in House Democratic primaries is also happening in Senate races. The last-minute withdrawal of Maine’s Graham Platner (D) — the leftist candidate with the Nazi tattoo — throws their nomination for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat into confusion. State Rep. James Talarico (R), another left-wing candidate, is the Democrats’ Texas Senate nominee. In Michigan, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s (D-N.Y.) endorsed candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, a candidate who for years advocated defunding the police and then deleted his tweets about it, is leading the Democratic Senate primary field.

If successful, the four left-wing House primary winners could join four democratic socialist colleagues in the House — Ocasio-Cortez and Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich), Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Summer Lee (D-Pa.). If successful, the three left-wing Democratic candidates could join Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Senate.

With small Democratic majorities, such left-wing Democratic members could prove to be the pivotal votes in the next Congress. Expect the bidding wars to begin immediately after the election. Congressional Democratic leaders will be on notice. The socialists’ leverage will be as large as Democratic majorities are small. If these members simply refuse to support their leadership’s proposals, they could deny the Democrats a majority. They could even vote with Republicans to defeat Democratic legislation they oppose or find insufficiently progressive. In either or both bodies, they will have the power to dictate outcomes and the agenda.

Nor is this threat of left-wing control of the Democratic House and Senate caucuses dependent on this year’s primaries and general elections. There are almost 100 members in the Democrats’ Congressional Progressive Caucus in the current Congress.

Even without reinforcements, Democrats’ left-wing threat is already in place and in Congress. But reinforcements are coming. The only question is how large their number will be.

Although many registered Democrats are unquestionably looking to send a strong message of disapproval about President Trump, they should be cognizant of the messengers they are sending to carry it. These new messengers, as they join the most strident voices already in place, will likely have immense leverage over the next two years.

Democrats looking to negatively showcase the Trump administration between now and 2028 could find their own radicals becoming the show instead. This is not what the Democratic leadership wants or needs at the center of the national stage for the two years heading into the first presidential election since 2016 that will not have Trump on the ballot.

J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left.” Follow him on Substack.

A Democratic congressional majority depends on the most left-wing Democrats

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